Unless the polls are spectacularly wrong, Italians will elect the most right-wing government in their post-war history this Sunday. A three-party alliance is expected to win more than 60% of seats in parliament; and it gives the impression that the trio will be dominated by Brothers of Italy (FdI, for its Italian acronym) and that the maximum leader of that party, Giorgia Meloni, will accede to the position of prime minister.
Liberals shudder. The FdI has its roots in neo-fascism. In his speeches, Meloni lashes out at illegal immigrants and woke ideology. Earlier this year he told US conservatives that "our identity is under attack," and has accused the European Union of being complicit in ethnic "replacement." He defends and admires Viktor Orbán, the populist Hungarian prime minister. Meloni's vote follows the success of the Sweden Democrats, who became the country's second-largest party in elections two Sundays ago and are likely to have a stake in the next government.In France, Marine Le Pen won 41% of the vote. the votes in his duel with Emmanuel Macron last April. All these events are signs of a powerful shift in the European balance towards the extreme nationalist right. Fed up with the failures of the established parties, voters are leaning towards what they do not has not been tested or evaluated.
And liberals aren't the only ones who worry. The dour bankers fear that Meloni will become entangled with the European Union, go soft on reforms and lose control of Italy's huge debt (2.7 trillion euros, more than 150% of GDP). FdI has no experience of government (it was founded in 2012, and barely got 4% of the vote in the 2018 elections); and his likely coalition will include the parties led by Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini, two dodgy men with a history of rocky relations with Brussels. Neither of them lack reasons to clash with Meloni, who will have stolen a crown that they both consider should have been theirs. In a country that has had 30 prime ministers and more than twice as many governments since 1946, that is not a recipe for stability.
To what extent should these very different sides care? The risks are obvious. However, there are also reasons to keep a cool head. First, let us consider social policy. FdI members are very committed to Catholic values, and many would like to go back in time. However, Meloni has firmly stated that he does not plan to repeal the law that allows abortion, in force since 1978 and with solid support among the population; the attempt to repeal it in 1981 was rejected in a referendum by almost 70% of voters. The same goes for gay rights. Civil unions between homosexuals have been allowed since 2016 and, although there is no consensus in favor of homosexual marriage, there is also no urgency to eliminate unions. A crackdown on illegal immigration is certainly to be expected, but when Salvini was in government, between June 2018 and September 2019, he promised the same and then discovered that international law obligations and European Union rules imposed limits on what i could do.
The reality is that Italy is limited in many ways; and not least because of the roles played by its indirectly elected president and the president of the constitutional court, two centrists with impeccable track records. Similar restrictions will limit the damage that Meloni can do to the European Union, no matter how hard he tries. It is true that, like Salvini, he has spoken in the past of eliminating the euro or even leaving the community bloc. However, the two politicians have understood that belonging to the European Union enjoys a predicament in Italy, where 71% of the population supports the euro. Meloni has already promised to follow the reform plan prepared by his predecessors and approved by the European Commission, which comes accompanied by some 200,000 million euros for the recovery from the pandemic. He says that he will try to introduce some changes, but with the agreement of the Commission; good luck with that.
A breakout would stop the inflow of money. It would also mean that Italy would no longer qualify for help from the European Central Bank's new bond-buying instrument. The result would be a crisis in the markets, and Meloni knows it. Some informed voices say that he is trying to find a reassuring banker for the post of economy minister and a respected Europeanist for foreign minister. Meloni's mission is to reassure, and in this he differs from Salvini, an unreliable arsonist. The fact that she is the one who has risen to the top of the right-wing pack is the best news in an unsettling situation.
There is another undoubted advantage in the figure of Italy's likely new prime minister. Unlike Salvini and Berlusconi, or even Le Pen and Orbán, Meloni is not an admirer of Vladimir Putin. Since the invasion of Ukraine, she has raised a strong and determined voice in support of Ukraine and NATO.
However, Meloni faces enormous obstacles. The Italian economy is unproductive and weighed down by structural, cultural and demographic problems. Since 2000, GDP per capita has not grown as it should if Italy wants to service its debt. Nearly a quarter of young Italians are not in employment, education or training; it is, by far, the worst community percentage. The EU-backed reform plan should help correct that situation, but change will be long and slow, if it comes at all. It will have to be pushed forward for a decade or more, and not the 17 months managed by Mario Draghi, the outgoing prime minister.
Is Meloni the right person to give that boost? Nothing in his speeches indicates that he understands the need for competitiveness. In fact, he is in favor of nationalizations and protectionism, although he will not be able to achieve either.
What if the economy goes bad? After years of interest rates pegged at or below zero, the European Central Bank has just raised them by 0.75 percentage point. Further increases are expected this year. If things get really tough, will Meloni coolly collaborate with the European Union and the European Central Bank, or go into populist mode, as Greece did a decade ago? A beleaguered leader who, with Salvini hot on her heels, tried to shore up her popularity by blaming the European Union for Italy's problems would offer a very different perspective from the one offered by Meloni today. However, there is also a point of consolation here. Meloni needs the European Union because Italy cannot take care of its debt without help from Brussels. Europe must calmly accept the democratic Italian decision to elect Meloni and must help her succeed while privately warning her how damaging a breakup would be, both for Italy and for the European Union.
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Translation: Juan Gabriel López Guix
