It is not a perception. Covid cases have been rising for weeks. In one month they have gone from 75 cases per 100,000 inhabitants to 137. And surely, public health experts say, the figure is higher because they have not been counted in detail for a long time. At the moment the incidence is monitored in citizens aged 60 and over, but the Ministry of Health has not provided the data since the end of June (20 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over 60 on June 30), as well as in the centers primary care and hospitals through the Sentinel Respiratory Infection Surveillance System (Sivira).
But why are cases rising? Experts are clear: the loss of immunity from vaccines over time is behind these increases, indicates epidemiologist Daniel López Acuña. For this reason, those responsible for public health of the Ministry of Health and the autonomous communities agreed yesterday to allow the start of the covid and flu vaccination (jointly) in the last week of this month of September for those over 60 years, with priority for those aged 80 and over and residents in senior centers.
The rise occurs in all communities. In Catalonia, Covid cases grew steadily from the end of June (1,951 cases) until mid-August, when 6,326 infections were recorded. Since then, a slight decrease and a maintenance in the last three weeks, with 5,742 cases in the last evaluation (week of September 4 to 10). The figure is significantly higher than last year at the same time, when 3,447 infections were recorded, a circumstance that increases the precautions of health authorities before the arrival of the most favorable season for respiratory viruses.
The forecasts are that, with the children returning to school and the arrival of autumn, with the increase in coexistence in indoor spaces, cases will continue to rise. Despite this, there is not excessive concern among health authorities because although vaccines lose effectiveness, it is also true that the majority of the population still has sufficient antibodies thanks to vaccination: 92.6% of the population has the complete regimen. , a percentage that drops to 56% in the case of the first booster dose, although in the group over 60 years of age, that figure rises to 91.2%. To this we must add that the vast majority of citizens have been infected on at least one occasion.
Tranquility, they say, because there are more cases but it does not translate into an increase in hospitalizations (2.9 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, far from last year at this time, where it reached 6.1, although it has increased by 0, 9 points in one month). And because the variants that circulate are also subvariants of omicron. The last few weeks have been XBB.1.5 (29%), BA.2.75 (14%) and XBB.1.5-like F456L (14%), according to the latest Sivira report.
But the increase in circulation, not only in Spain but also in Europe and America, increases the chances that it will mutate and that these mutations will be able to evade the protection of vaccines. There are currently two variants of particular interest, the EG5 (Eris) and the BA.2.86. The first began to be detected last month and is almost the majority in China (70% of cases). The other, with numerous mutations (more than 30), has already been detected in 14 countries, including Denmark, the United Kingdom, the United States and Israel.
To do? Experts remember what we already know: that the most effective weapon against this virus is none other than the vaccine, especially to protect the most vulnerable. Also use the mask and maintain interpersonal distance when one is infected, explains epidemiologist Daniel López Acuña, who, as the World Health Organization has already done, calls on countries to closely monitor the circulation of the virus, to sequence it, to track, something that the vast majority has stopped doing after the end of the pandemic. “It is necessary to know the penetration of the new variants that have been emerging and check whether, due to mutations, they can escape the immune responses of a previous infection or vaccination,” he points out.
Regarding the loss of both natural and pharmacological immunity due to the passage of time, López Acuña puts on the table the need to study whether it is necessary to do a new round of vaccination, with vaccine formulations with the new variants (already there is one approved). “This is important for our immune protection,” she notes.
Just yesterday, the Public Health Commission, made up of the Ministry of Health and the autonomous communities, addressed the vaccination strategy for vulnerable groups for the coming autumn. The first to receive it will be those over 80, along with the flu from the end of September. Also residents in senior and disability centers.
These groups include those over 60, the chronically ill, health and socio-health professionals and people with direct occupational exposure to animals or their secretions on poultry, pig or mink farms or farms or to wild fauna (birds, wild boars or mustelids). ), such as ranchers, veterinarians, farm workers, hunters, ornithologists, environmental agents, zoo personnel, etc. The purpose is to reduce the opportunity for concomitant infection of human and avian or porcine viruses, reducing the possibility of recombination or genetic exchange between both viruses.
What covid vaccine will be given in this campaign? Comirnaty XBB.1.5 is expected to arrive this month, which responds to the new variants of the virus. If this were not the case, Spain has sufficient doses of the Spanish vaccine, Hipra, as a booster dose in people aged 16 and over who have previously received an mRNA vaccine against covid.
