Barcelona has exceeded 1.7 million inhabitants. According to the latest figure recorded by the Municipal Data Office, there are 1,700,895 citizens registered. This number corresponds to last September 1 and has not been updated, but seeing the growth trend of the first eight months of 2023, it is possible that the data is higher today. Last January there were 1,660,435 inhabitants in Barcelona and the latest figure adds up to 2.4% more (40,460 people).
This population jump affects the number of councilors that make up the council. From the first democratic elections in 1979 to 1991, the Catalan capital elected 43 councilors, but since the 1995 elections, when the battle for mayor was fought between Pasqual Maragall and Miquel Roca, the City Council went to 41 eligible councilors due to the population loss.
It is true that there are still three and a half years until the next local elections and the number of inhabitants may vary. Now, if we analyze what would have happened in the May elections with the current number of inhabitants, we find a different electoral result.
With the help of our electoral analyst Carles Castro we have applied the d'Hondt law taking into account the 1,700,895 inhabitants and the result is that Trias would keep its 11 councilors and would continue to be the winner. The current mayor Jaume Collboni (PSC) would also retain his current 10 representatives. But former mayor Ada Colau (BComú) would win a seat and go from 9 to 10. ERC and PP would revalidate their 5 and 4 councilors, respectively, and Vox would obtain one more representative and go from 2 to 3.
If there were 43 councilors, the absolute majority would go from the current 21 to 22. Therefore, the sum of PSC and Trias per Barcelona, which today reaches just that majority, would fall short and would need some more support. On the other hand, the tripartite option (PSC, BComú and ERC) would reach 25 councilors, one more than now. Collboni's investiture would not have been in jeopardy because the councilors of PSC, BComú and PP would add one more vote than the 23 that lifted the current mayor to office in June.
It is true that this exercise is pure entertainment, but it is also true that the parties are very attentive to the evolution of the population and where the political sympathies of the new inhabitants who increase the census are directed. Meanwhile, the municipal leadership works with the priority of trying to close a government pact that relieves the PSC of its extreme minority.
What happened last week in the Spanish Congress between Junts and PSOE has cooled Collboni's desire to reach an agreement with the post-convergents and, in turn, they have seen that an agreement with the socialists may not suit them now. The polls indicate a rise of the PSC that deters those of Junts when they aspire to a comeback against ERC and Salvador Illa. In this context, Colau awaits his opportunity after his decision to stay in the City Council and not run for positions that would force him to leave the council.
