High recycling rates, lengthening the life of technological products and policies to prevent waste would allow up to 67% of the demand for minerals necessary to carry out the energy and digital transition in Spain to be covered with recycled materials by 2050. This is indicated by a report from the CIRCE Joint Research Institute (University of Zaragoza) commissioned by Friends of the Earth. It calculates the increase in demand for minerals that these industrial plans will entail until mid-century and estimates the potential to reduce their impact by extracting them from the earth.
In total, in a scenario in which demand decreases and paper recycling increases, the extraction of minerals used in these technologies would be reduced by up to 49%.
Electric mobility is the main source of demand for raw materials, so "this is the most vulnerable area to possible future supply problems that may arise," explains researcher Alicia Valero.
The electric vehicle is responsible in the period 2020-2050 for between 54-58% of the accumulated demand for aluminum and copper, or 73-92% of the materials associated with batteries, such as manganese, cobalt, nickel and lithium .
Electric mobility overwhelmingly dominates the demand for new metals for this purpose, as it is estimated that it is responsible for 79% of the accumulated demand for rare earths (dysprosium and neodymium, which are used for engines). Wind power needs 16% of rare earths, specifically for wind turbines.
Power lines absorb the demand for copper and aluminum while electrical and electronic devices would capture between 5 and 12% of most metals and up to 35% of the total demand for gold. "This demand will not be negligible for the future," says Valero.
For their part, electrolyzers (to produce green hydrogen) would absorb 77% of materials such as palladium or platinum. "And we don't talk about the rest of the minerals that are needed for the rest of the sectors," says Valero.
The report highlights that by 2025, supply will be dominated by primary extraction, "since recycling is negligible today." However, from 2035 onwards a more positive picture would appear, in which demand covered by recycling".
By 2045, recycling could already cover around 50% of demand (with large flows of batteries and electric cars that end their life cycle).
The report is released at a time when European countries are taking steps to increase their demand reduction in access to mineral resources.
The European Union has adopted the agreement that by 2030, 10% of European annual consumption of minerals considered “strategic” will be extracted from European soil.
At the same time, it is intensifying efforts to diversify the supply of minerals from third countries.
In this context, the new European legislation speeds up permits for projects considered strategic, including mining projects, for which financing is provided. Friends of the Earth criticizes, however, that the European regulation "lowers environmental standards in aspects such as the protection of natural spaces or water."
“The report shows that adopting measures to really boost metal recycling, as well as saving measures, could significantly reduce demand and, therefore, the need to extract new minerals from the ground,” says Adriana Espinosa, head of Resources. Natural and Waste from Friends of the Earth.
The study concludes that a combination of circular economy and self-sufficiency measures would reduce the demand for minerals globally by 34% for the set of metals analyzed and by 50% specifically in the case of key metals such as lithium.
The authors of the work judge that extending the useful life of technologies, improving and accelerating the recycling of metals and limiting the size of electric car batteries are elements that provide great benefits in this objective. If, in addition, reuse is encouraged and the fleet of private vehicles is reduced with a commitment to electric bus transportation, in this case recycled materials would make it possible to respond to 67% of the demand for minerals.
Electric mobility is the area that has the most weight in the demand for minerals. Therefore, the measures related to it are those that have the greatest positive effect in terms of reducing this demand.
In this sense, reducing the fleet of private vehicles in circulation (with a fleet of passenger cars in 2050 three times smaller than the current one) and increasing the fleet of electric buses would reduce demand between 10 and 25% depending on the type of metal analyzed. Likewise, reducing the size of vehicle batteries would slow demand by between 3 and 14%.
The research also addresses the perspective of global justice, that is, in terms of equitable distribution of available resources worldwide. “European consumption of minerals could not be extrapolated to the countries of the South, there would not be minerals for everyone. To achieve a fair and sustainable energy transition, it is not enough to replace fossil energy sources with renewable energy. It is essential to rethink our production and consumption model,” continues Espinosa.
Friends of the Earth urges the Government to take note of the conclusions of the study and to apply the proposals given when implementing the Roadmap for the Sustainable Management of Mineral Raw Materials and in the reform of the Francoist Mining Law.
”These policies must be at the height of the ecosocial crisis we are experiencing. The reduction of the fleet of private vehicles, the commitment to extend the useful life of technologies, the application of adequate recycling systems are possible measures to achieve an energy transition that is fair to people and that respects planetary limits," concluded Espinosa. .
