Dictatorships tend to fall as Ernest Hemingway said that one would go bankrupt: slowly and then quickly. In hindsight, the signs may be obvious. In 1978, the corrupt, brutal, and unpopular Iranian regime found itself beset by protesters and led by an elderly and ailing Shah. A year later, there was nothing left of him. Today Iranian protesters are once again calling for the overthrow of a corrupt and brutal regime, led this time by an elderly and ailing Ayatollah, Ali Khamenei. As Ray Takeyh, a veteran Iran watcher, has put it, "It's clear that history... rhymes with the streets of Tehran."
Pessimists warn that mass protests have shaken the Iranian theocracy before, especially in 2009 and 2019, and the regime has always put them down by resorting to shooting, torture and censorship. However, there are reasons to think that this time it may be different, that this time the foundations of the Islamic republic are truly shaking.
Iranians have been demonstrating angrily in the streets since the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who had been detained by Khamenei's "morality police" on charges of not covering even the last lock of hair. The protests demand great courage, given the regime's willingness to lock up and rape protesters. However, the protests have already lasted for weeks. The fury of 2009 was mostly urban and middle class, following the theft of an election from a moderately reformist candidate, and that of 2019 had a greater participation of the working classes, triggered by a sudden increase in the price of gasoline; but today's protests have broken out across the country and involve all ethnic groups and people from all walks of life.
The demands of the protesters have nothing to do with greater well-being or with a relaxation of this or that oppressive rule: they want the end of the regime. "Death to the dictator!" It is an unambiguous slogan. And the demonstrations are led by women, which gives them an unusual strength. The regime imposes the use of the hijab by whipping. That norm, which is part of a broader device of subjugation of women, is intensely hated. For this reason, simply by removing or burning the headscarf in public, women send a message of defiance that quickly spreads through social networks and inspires those who complain about the clerical regime. Some also get haircuts or enter the male sections of segregated student canteens, where they are welcomed by their hip-minded male peers.
That the regime feels threatened by clear signs of 21st-century morality is evident in the alleged plans to kidnap or assassinate Masih Alinejad, a New Yorker who urges Iranian women to share photos of herself without a hijab. Now, as much as the mullahs want to crush these fractious women, they cannot be sure that the security forces will obey the order to shoot them off the streets nor that they will be able to control the fury that such a mass femicide would unleash. .
In previous protests, the regime had called on its supporters to organize counter-demonstrations. This time, those supporters have barely shown any signs of life. Furthermore, various figures who in the past would have condemned the protests or expressed support for the regime now have not. For now, Iran's top generals say they support Khamenei. However, it is not clear how far they will go in supporting an 83-year-old man, far from reality and who wants to install his innocuous son as his successor. When protests in Egypt spiraled out of control in 2011, the military brass ousted the unpopular president (who was also preparing to name his son as his heir) and allowed a brief flowering of democracy before eventually seizing power themselves. In Iran, as in Egypt, the military brass have big, murky business interests to protect. If they feel that the supreme ruler is going down, they will have no incentive to go down with him.
In the event that Khamenei's regime fell, few would regret it. This is an unholy alliance between sanctimonious and pickpockets. Inside the country, they frown on fun and free elections, while the Iranian economy stagnates and the supposedly virtuous ruling class hoards rials. Abroad, his proxy militias dominate Lebanon, destabilize Iraq, fuel a war in Yemen, and back a murderous despot in Syria. He also supplies kamikaze drones that help Russia destroy Ukraine's power grid.
If the next Iranian regime were more responsive to the wishes of its people, it would commit fewer abuses at home and intervene less abroad. Both changes would enjoy popular support; With the price of bread skyrocketing, Iranians are very upset with the huge sums their rulers spend on terrorizing citizens. An Iran that stopped exporting revolution would make the Middle East less tense and allow the Gulf states to spend less on weapons. The threat of a nuclear arms race could recede; and trade, to flourish, as has happened between Israel and the Arab countries that have recently recognized that State.
However, much less favorable outcomes are possible. A nationalist military regime could relax compulsory religiosity, but still steal from Iranians, arm foreign militias, and launch a race for a nuclear bomb. Another possibility is that Iran will end up like Syria, where a dictator has preferred to reduce the country to rubble rather than relinquish power.
The world should want what the protesters want: an Iranian government that reflects the will of the Iranian people. However, little help can be given from outside. It is difficult to impose stricter sanctions, because they are already very strict. (The US just recently and rightly added sanctions targeting Iranian companies that sell combat drones to Russia.) Foreigners can help protesters communicate with each other by installing proxy servers or allowing them to download VPN software that bypasses Internet controls. The more Iranians watch videos of schoolgirls taunting angry mullahs, the less inevitable clerical rule will seem.
The protesters claim to want "a normal life". To achieve this, they will not only have to get rid of the regime, but also avoid a civil war. So the counterrevolution, today decentralized and leaderless, has to be inclusive. Many pious Iranians fear revenge killings, as have happened after regime change in neighboring countries. They need to be reassured that the current movement includes all Iranians, not just those who hate clerics.
The world must brace itself for the possibility that Iran's four-decade experiment in murderous, theocratic rule that hates freedom and intrudes on private bedrooms may not last much longer. And if, against all odds, Iran becomes the normal country its citizens yearn for, the rest of the world should welcome and embrace it.
