Greenhouse gas emissions fell by 5.5% in 2023 in Catalonia, according to a provisional estimate carried out by the Public Emissions Monitor of Catalonia entity. Despite the 2023 emissions reduction, Catalonia "is still very far from the pace and consistency necessary to achieve the 2030 objectives of the Catalan and Spanish governments, within the framework of the European Union, the scientific recommendations of the IPCC and the commitments of the Paris Agreement," indicates this entity made up of technicians and disseminators on climate change.
The Provisional Estimate of CO₂e Emissions for Catalonia 2023 has been calculated by modeling the four greenhouse gas emissions (GHG or CO₂e) sectors: energy, industry, agriculture and livestock, and waste. In the energy sector, the model treats emissions generated by transportation and those from other energy uses, such as electricity generation, separately. Recent monthly data from public statistical sources are used, as detailed in the technical report for this estimate.
The result of the Provisional Estimate of CO₂e Emissions for Catalonia 2023 is 39.7 Mt CO₂e. This represents a reduction of 5.5% compared to 2022 emissions calculated with the same model and a reduction of 1.7% compared to 2021, the last year with official data available, when total emissions were almost 40, 4 Mt CO₂e.
The provisional estimate for 2023 shows a change in trend compared to the previous two years, when emissions had grown after the sharp drop in 2020 due to confinement due to Covid-19, and are consistent with other similar forecasts, such as those in the Observatory report. of sustainability or those of the Climate Change Research Center of the Basque Country for the whole of Spain, and also with the general trends of the European Union. The data analyzed shows a decrease in the consumption of fossil fuels, particularly with a 9% reduction in the consumption of natural gas and a 2% reduction in the consumption of fuels for road transport (gasoline and diesel).
Regarding electricity produced with technologies that generate emissions (basically combined cycles and cogeneration, which use natural gas), the reduction has been 16%. The estimate made does not analyze the underlying causes that cause the decrease in emissions; Some of the possible reasons may be, among others, the improvement of industrial efficiency, more responsible energy consumption in homes, changes in mobility patterns, technological changes, a greater participation of renewable energies or the increase in self-consumption. , indicate the promoters of this new study.
The Provisional Estimate of Emissions in Catalonia 2023 indicates that, if the objective that the Generalitat has calculated to transfer to Catalonia the level of ambition of the Fit to 55 package of the European Union is assumed, emissions in 2030 should not exceed 28.2 MtCO2e, 29% below 2023 emissions. In relation to the IPCC recommendation, global average of necessary emissions reduction, Catalonia's emissions for 2030 should not exceed 24.8 MtCO2e, 37% below of emissions in 2023, with an annual average of a reduction of more than 6% from 2024. Even if this objective is met, the Monitor warns, "this would not comply with the Paris Agreement, which establishes that countries developed countries must reduce emissions faster than the global average.
In fact, "the objective of the Public Emissions Monitor of Catalonia is to monitor the evolution of recent emissions that allows monitoring compliance with emissions reduction objectives." "Having updated information and short-term forecasts is key to planning and making visible the main issues of social interest, as demonstrated by the regular use of this type of tools in areas such as the economy or food," indicates this group of experts.
Despite the urgency of action posed by the climate crisis, until now there are no updated official indicators, or short-term forecasts, of greenhouse gas emissions in The European Union or other national governments such as Australia have recent quarterly statistics. .
The Emissions Monitor experts indicate that "it is important to highlight that the official emissions inventories are based on a production criterion and not a consumption criterion." That is to say, the official inventory, and also the estimate presented here, includes the emissions that are produced within Catalonia, but not those generated in the manufacturing and transportation of products that are consumed here but come from outside. They also do not include most emissions from aviation and shipping. Therefore, "we can say that they are necessary but not sufficient statistics to account for the contribution to climate change of a specific territory," warn the authors of this emissions estimate.
