Governments plan by 2030 to increase their production of fossil fuels 110% more than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 69% more than would be advisable to stop it at 2°C. These plans lead to an increase in coal production until 2030, and oil and gas production until at least 2050, according to a report by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).
All of this comes despite 151 national governments committing to achieving net-zero emissions within decades and the latest forecasts suggesting global demand for coal, oil and gas will peak this decade. , even without the application of new policies.
Government plans in place would lead to an increase in global coal production until 2030, and oil and gas production until at least 2050, which over time increases a widening gap in fossil fuel production compared to what would be desirable to have a safe climate, according to the report.
The report concludes that given the risks and uncertainties involved in carbon capture and storage (technologies invoked to legitimize fossil energy for its theoretical capacity to absorb CO2), countries should aim to eliminate almost all coal production and use. by 2040, and reduce 75% of oil and gas production and use by 2050 relative to 2020 levels.
While 17 of the 20 producing countries analyzed have committed to achieving net-zero emissions (and many have even launched initiatives to reduce emissions from fossil fuel production activities), none have committed to reducing coal production , oil and gas in line with the goal of limiting warming to 1.5ºC.
Governments with greater capacity to transition away from fossil fuels should aim to achieve more ambitious reductions and help support transition processes in countries with limited resources.
“Governments are literally doubling fossil fuel production; “That means a double problem for people and the planet,” said UN Secretary General António Guterres.
“We cannot confront the climate catastrophe without addressing its root cause: dependence on fossil fuels,” says Guterres.
The Duga climate conference (COP28) must send a clear signal that “the era of fossil fuels has run out of gas and that its end is inevitable,” he added. “We need credible commitments to scale up renewable energy, phase out fossil fuels and boost energy efficiency, while ensuring a just and equitable transition.”
Around the world, deadly heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, storms and floods are costing lives and livelihoods, making it clear that human-induced climate change is already here. Global carbon dioxide emissions (nearly 90% of which come from fossil fuels) reached record levels in 2021-2022.
“Governments' plans to expand fossil fuel production are undermining the energy transition needed to achieve net-zero emissions, putting the future of humanity in doubt,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP. "Powering economies with clean, efficient energy is the only way to end energy poverty and reduce emissions at the same time."
Andersen argues that after COP28, nations must come together to achieve a controlled and equitable phase-out of coal, oil and gas, “to alleviate the turbulence ahead and benefit everyone on this planet.”
The 2023 Output Gap Report provides profiles of around twenty major fossil fuel-producing countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar , Russia. Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America.
These profiles show that most of these governments continue to provide significant political and financial support for fossil fuel production.
"We see that many governments are promoting fossil gas as a transitional fuel, but with no apparent plans to abandon it later," says Ploy Achakulwisut, lead author of the report and SEI researcher.
“But science says we must start reducing global production and use of coal, oil and gas now, and increasing clean energy, reducing methane emissions from all sources and other climate actions, to keep the goal of 1.5°C”.
Despite being the root cause of the climate crisis, fossil fuels have remained largely absent from international climate negotiations until recent years.
At COP26 in late 2021, governments committed to accelerating efforts toward “energy phasing out” of coal without capture and storage systems to retain emissions as well as a “phasing out of subsidies.” inefficient to fossil fuels”, although they did not agree to redirect the production of all fossil fuels.
"Fossil fuels are between a rock and a hard place. By mid-century, coal should be history and oil and gas production will have been reduced by at least three quarters," says Neil Grant, an analyst. on energy and climate, from Climate Analytics. "Yet, despite their climate promises, governments intend to pour even more money into a harmful and dying industry, while opportunities abound in the burgeoning clean energy sector. In addition to being completely economically foolish, we are causing our own climate catastrophe," indicates
