The best proof that the world is increasingly complicated to understand is the desperate search for thirty years of a key concept that will clarify it for us. Note: In 1990 we concluded the "bipolar world", thanks to the "end of the cold war". The world was divided into East-West and North-South, and astride decolonization appeared none other than the world, the Non-Alien Movement, and so many other wild cards. With limited success, as everything was swallowed up by a supposed bipolar world that wasn't quite so. It is the same, seen from today's perspective, close to the first quarter of the 21st century, what we miss from that world is not that it was fair or democratic. What we miss is its (supposed) expository clarity as the key to any current interpretation.
Now we bring another wild card: it is called "Global South". And it simply doesn't exist. Not only that, instead of using it for everything and the opposite, it becomes an element of confusion. Joseph Nye, once again, explains it very convincingly. It is not a geographical term, and therefore it can confuse us in terms of geopolitical analysis. J. Nye says that more than fifty states in the world are above the equator (northern hemisphere therefore), and only thirty-two below. A clear majority of the world's population lives in the northern hemisphere. Among other things, because India and China, the two most populous countries in the world, are here, in the north. And at the same time, if we did a survey on a global scale, it is certain that many people would not only imagine these two countries in the "Global South", but would see them as the two main competitors to lead this invention. We have invented many more geopolitical wildcards: the G-7, which became the G-8 by incorporating Russia, only to become the G-7 again when it was kicked out; the G-22, back in the day, that if it stayed in the G-20 there was a risk that middle powers (Spain, for example) would not enter this club; at the time, the Brics concept (as a marketing term not bad) entered the scene, which was supposed to include China, Russia, India and Brazil, as "emerging" economies. But only the latter country belongs to the "Global South". And, by the way, are the so-called "Arab petro-monarchies" of the Gulf "emerging economies"? Anyway, COP28 is taking place in... Dubai. This past August, the Brics summit already convened fifteen countries that all claimed to be "emerging economies", including Egypt, Iran and Ethiopia. What do these last three have in common? Egypt and Iran stage the greatest confrontation on a regional scale, and in the heart of Islam.
We should be much more careful. In the last thirty years, several realities have come to light. One, that the bipolar world is over (in one way or another), almost every state on the planet wants and needs to be in every supranational organization they can, regional or global. ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), the OSCE, NATO (with a logical renewed impetus), the Council of Europe and various Latin American regional organizations have been strengthened. In Latin America there is a fairly common backdrop, and it is that if this Ukraine allows sweeping against the United States, why not? Even Pope Francis has done it, first as an Argentine and shortly afterwards with nuances of a more Vaticanist profile.
We are therefore looking for useful guidelines, now that the term "globalization" (another common wild card used in the 1990s) is somewhat in retreat. We know for sure that the world, as a global system, will be increasingly interdependent and this parameter affects all actors, states, international organizations or others. We also know for sure that conflicts (of varying intensities) will continue to be the rule, while peace will continue to be "what lies between two wars". Some commentators have indicated, for example, that what is happening in Ukraine is "a war between Europeans". Error resulting from a biased reading, when this war has as one of its consequences that Russia prevents the export of Ukrainian grain through the Bosphorus Strait, Turkey comes into play and suddenly many people in the sub-Saharan Sahel begin to go hungry .
And how do we analyze what is happening in Gaza, in addition to the moral angle, which outrages more and more people? Because Gaza is in the north, but right now it is the worst nightmare on the planet.
