Ron DeSantis' early withdrawal from the election race has turned the Republican primaries into a duel between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. Or, rather, in a plebiscite that will test the support of the first ex-president charged with criminal charges in the history of the United States. It is the scenario that both have been waiting for months: Haley now stands as the only alternative to the absolute domination of the tycoon over the party, and Trump, with the support of almost all the fallen in battle, centers the attacks on a single target.
"Can you hear that noise?" asked the former governor of South Carolina in her biggest campaign event to date, in front of just over a thousand people, on Sunday in Exeter (New Hampshire). "It's the sound of a race for two". However, the victory is very expensive at the bookies: since 2016, no one in the Republican Party has bet against the winning horse.
The first assault, and perhaps the last, will not wait: today Trump and Haley will fight a duel in New Hampshire, the second primary meeting of the Republican contest, after the overwhelming victory of the tycoon - with 51% of the votes– in the Iowa caucuses. Since that date, Monday of last week, three candidates have left the electoral race due to lack of support: Asa Hutchinson has asked for Haley's vote, while Vivek Ramaswamy and DeSantis support Trump.
In New Hampshire, only 22 of the total 2,429 delegates who will elect the Republican candidate for the White House in July will be distributed. But the outcome could be decisive: a landslide victory for Trump would leave Haley untouched and with almost no options in the battle for the nomination. In this state, less conservative and Trumpist than Iowa, the former US ambassador to the UN has better options, despite the fact that she remains far below the former president: the latest poll gives her 34% of the intention to vote, to 52% for Trump, and a majority of those who supported DeSantis (8%) are expected to vote for the mogul.
Citizens registered as independents, who are 40%, can vote in New Hampshire's primary. While the Republican base is clearly aligned with Trump, Haley is counting on the support of moderates to pull off the upset.
The two candidates have intensified their attacks in the last week. Haley, who turned 52 on Saturday, presents herself as the bearer of "generational change" in a party dominated by the "chaos" of Trump, 77 years old. "The majority of Americans do not want to have to choose between two octogenarians", he said in a speech in Bretton Woods (New Hampshire), ensuring that the lucidity of the former president and Joe Biden are "in decline".
For his part, Trump has taken his style manual for a walk: as he did with Barack Obama, he has questioned the US citizenship of Haley, the daughter of Indian immigrants, and has thrown a series of racist taunts at her, laughing at her first name (Nimarata), and calling her Nimbra in a post on Truth Social. "Haley lacks presidential wood," he said Friday, "so I probably won't choose her as my vice president."
When the polls close tonight (around two in the morning peninsular time), the luck will be drawn. If Haley pulls off a solid second-place finish, or the unexpected win, she will keep her options alive in the next few primary meetings. However, a disappointing result could spell the end of his campaign and smooth Trump's path to the Republican nomination.
