Nimrod Goren is a leading analyst of Israeli politics. President of the Regional Foreign Policy Institute of Israel and collaborator of the European Institute of the Mediterranean, he visited Barcelona this week.
Can Netanyahu survive?
More than 70% of Israelis want him to resign, and this figure has remained constant since the beginning of the war. It does not necessarily reflect an ideological shift, not that Israelis are leaving the conservative camp, but that they have lost confidence in the prime minister. It is not only the failure of October 7, it is also the failure of his policies before and after. His conduct since the war began seems more focused on his political survival than on national interests. People don't like that.
If his goals are met in Gaza, won't the tide turn in his favor?
He is working on it. He is very skilled, he has been in power for a long time and he has been able to overcome all kinds of difficult situations. The scenario in which he manages to survive exists. Whether that's the likely scenario, I don't know. I think he should not continue to rule Israel. No prime minister of any ideological bent should continue after such a disaster. There are high-ranking generals who say or hint that they will resign when the war is over. He doesn't.
Has October 7 not reinforced the thesis of an iron fist with the Palestinians offered by the right?
First we have to understand how deep the trauma of October 7 is. Israelis remain trapped in that day. They had never experienced anything like it. For many it is another chapter of the Holocaust. Society is still processing it and that means there are a lot of questions about things people used to believe. People see that the political concepts they believed in have failed, but they are still not sure what they want. In times of war, people lose faith in the other side, do not trust their intentions or the prospects for peace. There is a paradox, because Israelis move more to the right in terms of ideas, but according to polls they go to the center in terms of electoral behavior. The party that emerges is Benny Gantz's centrist alliance.
Would Gantz push for a new policy with the Palestinians?
Israel has a political system based on coalitions; it will not depend only on him. What Netanyahu is doing is influenced by his own ideology, but also by his partners, radicals such as Ben-Gvir or Smotrich. If someone like Gantz is prime minister, in principle it will be a more centrist coalition. But diverse in terms of ideology, like the previous government of Bennett and Lapid. There will be people who support the two-state solution and people against it. But it will be easier to collaborate with this government.
In the current spiral of violence it seems difficult, but is there any hope for peace after all this horror?
For all of us who support a peace deal with the Palestinians and want Israel to reach its potential and not live at war, the two-state solution is the only viable option. Some say that it is not so feasible, but there is no other that is more feasible. And throughout history moments of crisis in Arab-Israeli relations have also led to moments of opportunity. The problem now is that the war is not with whom the peace will be made.
Hamas continues to gain popularity. Israel may be defeating Hamas militarily, but isn't it making it stronger?
Israel will weaken Hamas' ability to impose a military threat or govern Gaza. Now, what this means for the ideological transition within Palestinian society depends on who will rule the Palestinians in the future. In terms of governance, Hamas has been a catastrophe for which Israel cannot be blamed.
Don't you think Hamas would win the elections in the West Bank?
There is no way to know. There have been no elections for a long time. Celebrating it would be positive, the Palestinian leadership must be decided by the Palestinians, not the Israelis. Probably the Arab countries would also like to have their say. Opinions have to do with current leadership. Barguti is in prison. Abbas is not seen as a credible leader. But I don't think Hamas is an attractive instrument for the Palestinian national movement in the West Bank. They may be skeptical of the two-state solution but they want a Palestinian State that is not religious, that is not based on Islamic law.
Are you convinced? Polls also show strong support for Hamas in the West Bank.
I talk to people who represent the Palestinian national struggle but who believe in compromise and dialogue, much like President Abbas. It is a basic notion of condemning terrorism and seeking compromise, which does not mean giving up your national aspirations and rights, but the way you try to achieve them is through negotiation. Maybe some would like to see another intifada or more fighting, but not the Hamas model. But one problem is that, according to the same poll, many in the West Bank do not believe that Hamas did what it actually did. And this has to do with the role of the West Bank leaders, but also of other Arab countries, when denouncing what Hamas did. You can be pro-Palestinian, you can criticize Israel, but you must condemn what Hamas did and call it by its name.
None have done it.
Bahrain only. And for many Israelis it is a disappointment, especially with the Arab countries with whom we have peace and normalization but they continue not to recognize what happened on October 7. Does it have an impact on Arab public opinion because if they don't hear it from their leaders, will the Israelis believe it?
The majority opinion in the Arab world is that October 7 is a consequence of Israel's continued policy of mistreatment of the Palestinians.
This conflict has been going on for decades and there have been very hard times, also for Israel, with terrorist attacks by Hamas with buses and cafes exploding in Tel-Aviv and Jerusalem. But what's happening now is on multiple levels increasingly brutal and horrifying and it's natural to expect people to recognize that without it meaning you can't have your own positions. Someone needs to show how it achieves, all its complexity. This is leadership. Mansur Abbas, who is the leader of the Islamic party in Israel, has bluntly condemned what Hamas did, even if it does not change his own position. This is something Israelis want to hear from the region and the international community.
The problem is that what Israel seems to be looking for is carte blanche to bomb Gaza. Hasn't he gone from victim to aggressor?
Israel is used to being criticized by the international community. The determining factor in the Israeli calculation, what the Israelis are observing, are the positions of their key allies in the international arena. The main one, the USA. And President Biden has been very clear from day one. The aims of the war have their support and also, by the way, the leaders of the EU and several European leaders. The US has put conditions on maintaining support, which Israel is considering. Like the opening of the Kerem Shalom crossing or the entry of fuel. It also takes into account the concerns of neighbors, such as Egypt. And support for Israel remains, even from Arab leaders. They don't say it, but in fact they give it. Biden and Borrell and Macron and Schultz still support us. In the Israeli mentality, it is what matters. We have to manage this, it's an existential threat. The world will like us less, what will we do about it.
