With barely a week to go before the appointment on May 28, uncertainty hovers over the result. The tight forecasts of the polls leave almost everything up in the air. Even the most solid bastions of the PSOE project very open outcomes, with similar possibilities for the left and right. And a similar estimate is recorded by the large capitals. This is what some polls say that can make the most temperate candidates lose sleep:
MADRID'S COMMUNITY
Is it relative or absolute?
If the conservative bloc adds the same electoral quota as a couple of years ago (more than 57%), Díaz Ayuso's PP (with estimates of over 45% of the votes) would have the absolute majority of the Madrid Chamber within its reach (68 seats). And the most probable thing is that it will obtain it or that it will remain at the gates. One of the obstacles that stands in the way of that objective is Podemos: if it reaps 5% of the votes, it will automatically obtain seven seats at the expense of the other groups.
VALENCIAN COMMUNITY
One seat away from the majority
Few polls award more than 50 seats (the absolute majority) to the winning bloc. The CIS places the left-wing bloc at around 51, but the most up-to-date average leaves it at 50, and as long as Podemos achieves more than 5% of the vote to enter the distribution of seats. Of course, various polls give victory to the right, but few give it more than 50 or 51 deputies. The outcome, therefore, could be decided by the very narrow margin of a solitary seat.
ARAGON
A little Spain
The polls confirm once again that Aragon may be the Spanish equivalent of Ohio, the US state that anticipates the result of the entire country. In this sense, this community reflects the visible progress of the PP and Vox, but few surveys give the conservative bloc the magic number of 34 seats that add up to the absolute majority of the Aragonese Chamber. The foreseeable outcome draws a scenario in which, given the incompatibility of the regionalist parties with the ultras of Vox, the PSOE could once again lead a broad-spectrum Executive.
CASTILLA LA MANCHA
only worth the absolute
The socialist Emiliano García-Page is only worth an absolute majority to continue in power in Castilla-La Mancha. In the final stretch of the legislature, PP and Vox seemed to gather the 17 seats for an absolute majority with some ease and the popular ones even caressed the condition of first force. However, after the start of the campaign and according to the latest polls, the PSOE has recovered and could even equal or improve the 44% of the votes it obtained four years ago. And that electoral quota would guarantee the majority.
ESTREMADURA
Back to the past?
President Guillermo Fernández Vara already knows what it is to go through the opposition. He lived that desert crossing between 2011 and 2015. And he has governed the last four years with an absolute majority. Now, numerous surveys give him the majority with Podemos (33 deputies) and an electoral quota of over 40% of the vote. However, PP and Vox almost always appear just one seat away from reversing the correlation between the two blocks. And the campaign does not seem to have changed that uncertain correlation in any way.
SEVILLA
Fragile left majority
The average of the main polls and several of the most recent polls draw a fragile left-wing majority that would allow the current socialist mayor to revalidate the position. However, some studies give an advantage to the right as a result of the division of the left between Podemos and Adelante, which would leave the latter formation out of the cast of councilors and would allow PP and Vox to add the 16 mayors of the majority.
VALENCIA
very narrow margins
The left should comfortably retain Valencia according to the CIS forecast, which would even improve its 2019 result by at least one mayor (up to a total of 18). However, other polls reduce that advantage to the point of reversing it by a margin as narrow as almost undetectable. And in that case, the PP – which would be the force with the most votes – and Vox would add the 17 councilors of the absolute majority. One of the keys to the eventual defeat of the left would reside in the votes without representation of Podemos, well below the mandatory 5%.
MADRID
Die of success?
The continuity of the popular Martínez Almeida seems assured in light of the average of the main polls. However, the bloc on the right moves within a very tight range of councilors (between one and two above the absolute majority). From there, if Ciudadanos does not obtain representation but reaps more than 4% of the conservative votes and, at the same time, Podemos exceeds 5% and enters the distribution of mayors, a loophole would open for a tie between blocks , with a less predictable outcome.
SARAGOSSA
in the hands of chance
The average survey and the most recent studies seem to confirm the conservative majority that was imposed by the minimum in 2019. And that absolute right-wing majority could be expanded on 28-M, and go from 16 to 17 councilors. However, and the same as four years ago, this majority depends on at least one of the two minority left parties (Podemos or Chunta) not reaching 5% of the votes that would allow them to win up to two mayors each. For now, few polls put both forces above that percentage, but none takes them too far from that limit.
BILBAO
Who will be second?
The Basque capital only presents a single unknown: which force will occupy second place? (and always well below a PNV that appears as the undisputed winner, although without an absolute majority) The polls leave no room for surprise, since they place the nationalists between one and two councilors from the majority of the consistory (15 councilors ) and without the possibility of an alternative coalition (because the leftist forces could gather 13 seats in the best of cases). Who will be second? In 2019 it was the PSE by a narrow margin. Now Bildu registers a slight advantage.
