With more questions than certainties, the law that will amnesty the process has already begun its political journey, with the agreement of the PSOE with the pro-independence parties. For legal purposes, the amnesty will lead to the criminal oblivion of crimes - including those not tried - and will erase the criminal records of those affected. But the amnesty will also have political effects. The new left-wing government will have to articulate four-handed pacts with the Catalan and Basque nationalists. It is an opportunity for dialogue in plural Spain, which incorporates an actor like Junts into the board of Spanish politics, in which ERC already plays, and can allow a solution to the Catalan conflict to be put on track. In front of him, a strong right in parliamentary terms will respond with an inclement opposition. A period of opportunities opens up, although not without risks.
To begin with, a first effect of the amnesty has been this week's protests, with riots in Madrid. Complicated months are coming, during the processing of the law. "The amnesty will generate great social polarization, strong protests. But I wonder, what generates the tension, the disagreement over the amnesty or that the right has to accept that it will not govern and the second one, the PSOE, will do it, and with pacts of this kind?", poses the political scientist Pablo Simón .
As in all political agreements, there is a public part, but also commitments that have not been put in writing and that will be revealed. "There can be more concessions. And the disagreements have also been agreed, so that they don't lead to a break, because there will be many obstacles, on the street, politicians and in the courts, and the PSOE needs time to be forgiven for this and counterparties for when it returns to the polls". aim
Simón does admit that there may be a relaxation in sectors of independence, which had already begun with ERC. "But political operators must change. The process has been a crusher for elites, rulers who made decisions in contexts of great uncertainty and electricity. We need new tables, which enter with new coordinates and which can reduce the tension that comes with always going back to 2017", he underlines.
In the short term, the legislature will go through moments of great stress. Raimon Obiols, who was first secretary of the PSC, observes with concern the strategy of the right and the ultra-right, along the lines of "violent and cainite nationalist exasperation". They fear, he points out, losing the last opportunity to destabilize the country after seeing that the pardons had a positive effect. As a result of the difficulties of the PP in building a solvent opposition in Congress, he indicates, he is already moving the pressure to the streets and with the judges.
Despite this threat, Obiols considers that the proceduralists "are entering the path of the constitutional framework", which can give stability to the progressive majority in the legislature. Regarding the impact of the amnesty law in Catalonia, he considers that saying that the PSC can take its toll is an "old thesis that comes from the Pleistocene".
There are several accounts to analyze the impact of the amnesty, points out Margarita León, professor of Political Science at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), but she doubts that it can be read as a commitment to coexistence. The agreement has a logic of power and has resituated Carles Puigdemont and Junts, with little electoral support, he points out, at a point where they were not there, and they have emerged victorious from the struggle with ERC. This political scientist does not believe Junts intends to resolve the political conflict.
Instead, he observes that the amnesty debate "nourishes and rescues the extreme right", which can now enter "an already very polarized map. "If this move does not go well, the price that can be paid is very high", he warns.
Former deputy and member of the ERC national council Joan Tardà is more optimistic. "Conquering a negotiation scenario will not be easy, it will depend on the correlation of forces and will require time, but the amnesty means making a reset and opens a period in which the parties, if not on an equal footing, can at least start the construction of a shared solution - he says -. Which one will it be? We don't know, we have to build it." The goal is that there are no cross vetoes, he emphasizes.
With regard to the opposition front from the right and from the judiciary, this veteran ERC politician points out that "it will be tough, but it has a positive derivative and that is that it dynamits the bridges of the PSOE to retreat, because it can only carry out their proposals". If he surrenders, he will have to spend eight years in opposition, he predicts.
And he appeals to Junts not to waste the situation left by the 23-J. "In these elections we won the raffle and we are more decisive than in other moments of greater electoral weight. It would be irresponsible not to take advantage of it", he warns.
Looking at Catalonia, Astrid Barrio, professor of Political Science at the University of Valencia (UV) points out that the PSC, together with En Comú Podem, as the referent of the third way in Catalonia, has been a refuge for moderate Catalans that did not match the process. Now, he points out, they may feel betrayed. It is clear that the conflict must be resolved, he indicates, the question is whether the way the amnesty law is drafted, charging the inks against the judiciary, is the best way to go.
In Spanish terms, Barrio points out that the tension generated by the Popular Party is mainly due to the fact that it is the first time in Spain – apart from the motion of no confidence – that the winner of the elections does not form a government, and therefore builds an opposition tough that anticipates a tense and unproductive legislature in public policy.
The amnesty will focus political and media attention and its subsequent application will also be scrutinized. One of the beneficiaries of the law will be the political scientist Jordi Matas Dalmases, who chaired the Electoral Commission for the 1-0 referendum, a supervisory body with functions similar to an electoral board. Tried and acquitted, he is again awaiting trial after an appeal by the Prosecutor's Office. Matas, professor of Political Sciences at the University of Barcelona (UB), will be freed from the judicial burden with the amnesty, but he is skeptical about the effects on the solution of the political conflict.
Matas does admit that the amnesty changes the dynamics of Pedro Sánchez's investiture, because it adds the Junts vote, but nothing more. "The conflict in the Catalonia-Spain relationship will persist and so will the situation of exceptionality, even if both agree to negotiate. It will be like this until there is a solution, and this pact does not solve anything", he warns.
It is also prudent in relation to the evolution that the amnesty will have for practical purposes. "We will see how it is applied, if it affects all the cases it is supposed to include, and we will also see the role of judges. It is a question mark not only because of the law and the amount of ambiguity it will contain, it is also because of the absolute legal uncertainty that exists in Spain. You can't trust any judicial instance, we've seen it these last six years", he says.
There are many questions about the amnesty law. Some will begin to get answers in the coming weeks, when the text is made public and parliamentary processing begins, which will go hand in hand with other economic and social negotiations, which will involve new agreements and concessions. A high-voltage legislature is anticipated.
