If according to chaos theory (and an old Chinese proverb) the flutter of a butterfly in Asia can cause a tsunami in America, it is better not to think about the repercussions that war in the Middle East can have. They are felt in German, French and also UK politics, with strong divisions in the parties over ceasefire demands and pro-Palestinian demonstrations.
On the conservative side, the incendiary Minister of the Interior Suella Braverman (far-right and aspiring to lead the formation after the next elections) has armed a sacramental with an article yesterday in The Times in which she denounces the "permissiveness" of the police in the protests organized on Saturdays in London and other cities of the country by a series of groups under the umbrella of the PSC (Campaign for Solidarity with Palestine). In his alleged vitriol, he accuses Scotland Yard of being far more tolerant of the far left, transsexuals and movements such as
Downing Street has found a fire at its doors caused by the minister charged, in theory, with promoting law and order instead of stoking the fire. After his initial silence, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has distanced himself from Braverman's claims, and - despite maintaining confidence in her - has clarified that the head of the Interior did not make the corrections to the article that were required.
Braverman has long been a free verse within the Government, leaning as far as possible to the right in an already ultra-conservative team, to the point that many political analysts believe that she is provoking Sunak to quit, and so they do off the boat before it sinks at the next election.
For days a section of the press has been exerting relentless pressure for the police to ban tomorrow's demonstration, which coincides with Armistice Day events to celebrate the end of the First World War and honor the British fallen in that conflict and others His argument is the danger that radical pro-Palestinian elements will desecrate the Cenotaph, where it is traditional to lay wreaths, and that there will be violent clashes with members of the British National Party and other fascist groups.
But Scotland Yard chief Mark Rowley has claimed the body's independence, has so far resisted pressure and authorized the march after claiming it is scheduled two hours after the Cenotaph events and a considerable distance away, in a route that goes from Hyde Park to the United States Embassy, and that there is not enough reason to think that there will be a situation of sufficient disorder to limit freedom of expression. Braverman and voices on the extreme right say that the cries of jihad that are uttered at the events are tantamount to encouraging terrorism, and that among the organizers there are radical Islamists, some even linked to Hamas. Authority over the police is shared by the Home Office (in this case, Braverman) and the Mayor of London (the Muslim Sadiq Khan), and between the two there is a political gulf and considerable mistrust.
Concerns about the situation in Gaza have also reached Labour, whose leader, Keir Starmer, does not want to stand up to any accusations of anti-Semitism, is arm in arm with US President Joe Biden and does not call for a ceasefire , despite the fact that it is claimed by a wide sector of the grassroots, dozens of deputies and hundreds of councillors. That is why it is suffering from erosion, if not electorally, then internally, with strong divisions and fifteen "shadow ministers" (its leadership team) ready to resign.
The Welsh Parliament has passed a motion calling for a ceasefire, and the SNP (Scottish National Party) is considering doing the same next week during the parliamentary debate in the Commons on the legislative agenda for Government, thus puts Labor in a compromise and forces them to speak out. The right is wringing its hands, because its strategy is to stoke the culture wars and present the center-left as unredeemed radicals who condemn British colonialism, but sympathize with the Palestinian cause.
