Pact between employers and unions on inflation, with a recommendation of salary increases of 4% for this year, a pact that will strengthen the framework of the labor reform. Sacrificing part of the purchase value of wages to maintain the growth of the economy in the coming years. Political moderation of the employers, which renounces to push for the right in the middle of the election period, as much of the right would like, to maintain tranquility in the factories and workshops. Smart policy that defies the illegitimate government slogan. Under illegitimate governments there is no social contract.
There's more to it. Economic growth higher than expected, according to the latest estimates for 2023. No recession. Improvement in employment, with 20.5 million people employed, with a record number of indefinite contracts (labour reform). Agreement with Brussels on the adjustment of the pension system, negotiated with the senior officials of the European Union who directed the intervention of the Greek economy.
And even more. Inflation at the bottom of the EU table, with the big problem of food prices, which may soar again in the coming months as a result of the drought. Containment of energy prices. The price of gas at 35 euros MWh in the Dutch reference market. (340 euros in the summer of 2022.) Guaranteed gas reserves for next winter. New balance with Morocco, which is reflected in the decrease in irregular immigration, while Italy accumulates a dramatic problem with Libya and Tunisia. Latency at the border of Ventimiglia reaches France and this week a serious diplomatic conflict between Italians and French was on the verge of breaking out. Good relations with the United States. President Joe Biden presents Pedro Sánchez with a meeting at the White House on the 12th, the day the local election campaign begins.
This is the glass half full after a serious epidemic, which the WHO has just given as concluded, the eruption of a volcano on the island of La Palma, the outbreak of a war on European territory and the 'inflation rising to records not seen for years. The country could have suffered a serious collapse and it has not happened. With this glass half full, generously half full, in the 1980s and 1990s a governing party was guaranteed electoral victory.
However, we live in the slippery 21st century, the century of maximum acceleration of historical time and new insecurities. The century in which the concept of reality is eclipsed. Many people feel in danger and those who have less are not the most scared. Social ranks are at risk and everyone is on the defensive. There is contained fear and there is hallucinatory fear. In recent weeks, 50 complaints have been submitted to the Prosecutor's Office in Madrid for chemtrails, the white streaks left by planes in the sky. The gossip that the Government has ordered to be sprayed from the sky to increase the drought and ensure control of the population is circulating on the networks. It is not an anecdote. It's the most delusional version of a background that actually exists. In front of this background is the half-empty glass.
In this vessel with little water there is the drought and all the tensions over water resources that can be unleashed very soon. It's already happening. After the Doñana mistake, the president of the Andalusian Council, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, put himself at the head of the demonstration of thirsty Andalusia yesterday. In the glass half empty there are insufficient payrolls to make it to the end of the month, especially in the big cities, despite the increase in the minimum wage and the stabilizing effects of the labor reform. There is the serious problem of housing, which prevents many young people from full emancipation. It is not easy to moderate the price of rentals in a country with one of the most powerful tourist offers in the world. The Central Government is issuing signals of reaction in this area, but it may be too late. Pedro Sánchez is seen as very concerned about the youth vote. For weeks he has been making announcements and promises that may interest young people. Just yesterday, the president announced state funding of 50% of the interrail for young people aged 18 to 30 who want to travel around Europe this summer.
In the half-empty glass is the wear and tear accumulated over three unrepeatable years. And at the bottom of this sad vessel, you can see the open fight on the left flank of the ruling coalition: the laborious articulation of the new leadership of Yolanda Díaz, the minister most highly rated in the polls. Díaz has begun to inflate the sails of the Sumar platform, with the firm support of Esquerra Unida, but without a prior agreement with Podemos, a formation that claims the historical merit of having led the Government to a political trend almost outlawed in Spain since of the transition. After an almost spartan resistance within the Government – the Unides Podemos parliamentary group has never been broken during the last three years – the conglomerate located to the left of the PSOE is at risk of reappearing in front of much of society like the left that changes its name every four years, a political branch with many families that only manage to stay together for a short period of time because they do not have the internal stabilization mechanisms (the so-called doors revolving, a clientelistic system) of the major parties.
In the electoral cycle that begins on the 28th, not only the individual parties will be examined, especially the entire Government coalition, the first left-wing coalition in Spain since the time of the Second Republic. The first examination will be of a local nature and in three weeks it will be known whether in the municipal and regional elections the local factors or the major currents of politics weigh more. Spirit of the place or spirit of the time. The genius loci of the ancient Romans, or the genius secoli, the zeitgeist of German philosophy.
Translated into vulgar Latin: Ximo Puig and his left-wing allies manage to revalidate the majority in the Valencian Community after having located in Sagunto the largest industrial investment in Spain after the pandemic, or the Popular Party and Vox get the majority in the Valencian Courts thanks to the slogan "Sánchez must be thrown out", constantly repeated from some of the main media speakers in Madrid. (Significant changes are being prepared in Spanish private television for the second half of the year, in the final stretch of the general elections.) The Valencian example is the most vivid of all, since a change of majority in the Valencian Country would give the Popular Party a great competitive advantage for the next legislature: Madrid (where the PP is the big favorite), Andalusia and Valencia aligned on the territorial map would form a formidable front for a left-wing Government in the minority. Valencia will be key.
You're half full. You're half empty. Local sign or general sign. These are the lines of force for the May 28 election, the campaign for which begins on Friday. There will be many variables and in quite a few communities and councils the final result will be decided by a seat or by a councilor's act. It will therefore be an election with many shots on goal, to put it in football terms, the language of our time.
