Once the PNB's decision to bet on the relay was made public, at the end of November, the lehendakari, Iñigo Urkullu, transferred to Sabin Etxea, the headquarters of the PNB, a schedule that included the milestones they had to happen in the final stretch of the legislature and they had to precede the elections to the Basque Parliament. The document included intense legislative activity, the approval of some strategic projects and, finally, the arrival of three new powers included in the Gernika Statute. With the approval on Thursday of the last three laws of the mandate and the possibility that the agreed transfers will arrive with the Basque Government in office, the electoral countdown is accelerating and the option of an imminent electoral call that involves the dissolution is gaining weight of the Basque legislature before the end of the month and elections on April 21.
If this possibility is confirmed, the Basque elections will take the testimony of the Galician ones and will be the forerunner of the European ones, raised by the PP as a kind of plebiscite on the Government of Pedro Sánchez. These three electoral dates in just four months, even so, will also test the leadership of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, whose credit is at stake in Galicia today at the head of the popular party and who, in the case of Euskadi, faces the difficult challenge of refloating a Basque PP that continues in its electoral soil.
At this moment all the Basque parties are working with the hypothesis of elections on April 21, even more so after Urkullu has summoned the leaders of the PNB and the PSE for Monday to take stock of the legislature. The prerogative to set the date of the elections belongs to the lehendakari himself, but the decision has been elucidated by common agreement with the leadership of Sabin Etxea. With a view to fixing the electoral moment, the Jeltzales value both the achievement of these milestones prior to the elections and the needs linked to the candidacy of Imanol Pradales, still unknown to Basque public opinion.
According to the latest Basque Government Sociometer, only 37% of respondents identify him by his first and last name, although the suggested knowledge would increase to 58%, as reflected in the EiTB Focus survey. This is a problem that the PNB will have to deal with, which with Urkullu had guaranteed a knowledge level of 95% and very high and transversal approval rates.
The Jeltzales, in any case, are convinced that these levels of knowledge will increase as the election date approaches, and they are not in favor of extending the mandate, although some sources close to the party consider that the pre-electoral filming of Pradales 'has delayed excessively.
Days before the election call, the pulses of the parties are marked by the polls that have been published in recent weeks and which foresee a very close fight between the Jeltzale candidate and Pello Otxandiano, head of the EH Bildu list. According to these polls, the Jeltzales would get a minimum of 24 and a maximum of 28 seats (out of a total of 75), while the Abertzale coalition would be between 24 and 27 parliamentarians. However, three of the five main polls published this month give the Abertzale coalition first place, an unprecedented fact in elections to the Basque Parliament and unsuspected only four years ago (PNB has 31 seats today and EH Bildu, 21) . Equality is absolute, even with regard to the assessment and knowledge of the candidates.
Beyond this fight, the other point of interest is whether the PNB and the PSE will reach an absolute majority (38 parliamentarians), since the socialists have made clear their commitment to maintain the pacts with the Jeltzales. In this case, two of the five surveys give them this sufficient majority and the other three put them close to achieving it. The Basque nationalists have many options to continue governing, but seeing themselves overtaken by EH Bildu or failing to achieve an absolute majority with the Socialists would represent a major blow that would slow them down in the medium term.
The polls also agree to point to a slight advance for the PSE, which would go from 10 to 11 or 12 seats and would benefit from the division in the space of Podemos and Sumar. The choice of these formations to present themselves separately, together with the electoral decline they were already showing, places them in a very compromised position: the two formations are debating between obtaining a meager representation or, in the worst case, remaining outside the Chamber.
The starting position of the PP is not good either. The picture of the moment, advanced by the polls, gives them the same representation as in 2020, six seats, their historic minimum. Despite this, the popular people fear that the fight with EH Bildu could drag part of their voters towards the PNB and, shortly before the European elections, turn the second electoral date of the year into a torment for Feijóo.
