The political future of Spain will be decided at the end of May in the Valencian Community, the fourth most populous autonomous community in Spain (five million inhabitants), the largest autonomous community governed by the PSOE and its allies, after the socialist defeat in Andalusia. In Valencia, the relationship of forces that actually exists will be addressed. It will be an exciting and uncertain political battle.
The current turbulence on the left flank of the party system may have a special impact in a community where it is necessary to exceed 5% of the votes to obtain parliamentary representation. It is one thing to add, and another to be able to add the majority in an autonomy in which left and right are tied. The degree of mobilization of the respective electorates will be decisive.
Even if the foci of the political debate continue to be obsessively installed inside the M-30 in Madrid, the main battle will be fought in the Valencian Community, with far-reaching consequences. Those who are in a position to form a majority in the Valencian Courts after May 28 will certainly be able to sustain the government of Spain after the general elections in December.
In the Valencian Country, where the transition was turbulent, where there was virulent far-right terrorism, almost all the changes in the political cycle in Spain have been addressed. José María Aznar always affirmed that the conquest of the Levant was key to ending the political and cultural hegemony of a left that morally benefits from its status as the loser of the Civil War and victim of the dictatorship. A Madrid-Valencia axis based on a strong economic start could break the hegemony.
Aznar went to all lengths to achieve this, but the Valencian turboeconomy derailed as a result of the 2008 crisis, and left an impressive trail of corruption exposed. But time passes and now comes a new test. Now it is the left that is being examined.
It could be said that the current Government coalition in Spain began to be exercised in Valencia in 2015, after 20 years of dominance by the Popular Party. The left, however, does not have an overwhelming majority. Everything in Valencia now rests on delicate balances. The PP lost because of corruption, but maintains solid electoral bases, especially in the province of Alicante.
Let's look at the numbers. In the last regional elections, held in April 2019 (President Ximo Puig moved the regional elections forward a month to make them coincide with the general elections), the bloc of the left only managed to overcome the bloc of the right by 42,123 votes . That same day, the three right-wing parties combined (PP, Ciutadans and Vox) obtained 3,531 more votes than the left (PSOE, Compromís and UP) in the general elections.
More data In the regional elections of 2019, the Popular Party was 3,643 votes short of obtaining the last seat up for grabs in Alicante, which went to the PSPV-PSOE. In Valencia, the PP lost another seat to the Socialists by 1,397 ballots, and in Castelló, Compromís took a third seat from the PP by only 390 votes. The left ended up taking five seats ahead of the right. 52 to 47.
Adding is the question. Add the majority, without the 5% barrier becoming a deadly obstacle. To obtain representation in the Valencian Courts, it is necessary to exceed 5% of the votes cast at regional level. For years, one of the objectives of the left has been to modify the Valencian electoral law to lower the bar to 3%. The modification, however, requires a strengthened majority, so that PSPV, Compromís and Unides Podemos sought the pact with Ciutadans and were close to achieving it.
When the agreement was almost closed, a call from Madrid to Toni Cantó, ex-head of the ranks of Citizens in the Valencian Community, stepped on the brakes. The Valencian threshold of 5% is an organic component of the Spanish political system. It has served to prevent the appearance of a cantonal party in Alicante and for years stopped the Valencian Nationalist Bloc from entering the Courts, until this formation distanced itself from Catalan nationalism, allied itself with a fraction of the post-communist left and managed to jump above 5% with the Compromís brand and with the push of Mónica Oltra and Mireia Mollà, former members of Esquerra Unida who stood out for their denunciation of corruption.
Four years later there are two developments in the dynamics of parties. The Ciutadans crisis and the turbulence in the Unides Podemos space as a result of Yolanda Díaz's step forward and the final presentation of the Sumar platform in Madrid, without the participation, for the time being, of Podemos.
Ciutadans will not exceed 5% and it remains to be seen whether all their votes will go to the Popular Party. Ciutadans obtained excellent results in the Valencian Community four years ago: 470,000 votes and 18 deputies. The PP will be the main beneficiary, but Ximo Puig is trying to attract former voters of the orange party with a very presidential campaign and a civic support platform that includes former Cs militants.
Will Unides Podemos overcome the 5% barrier? Four years ago they surpassed it by far, thanks to the push of Podemos and Pablo Iglesias. The stalemate caused by the lack of agreement on the Sumar platform could leave UP below 5%, if confusion, fatigue and demoralization now spread among its voters.
UP's candidate for the presidency of the Generalitat Valenciana is Héctor Illueca, Podemos militant, labor inspector, former high-ranking official of the Ministry of Labor, that is to say, former collaborator of Yolanda Díaz. Illueca was not at the event at the Magariños pavilion on Sunday in order not to break his loyalty to the Podemos ruling group. Alejandra Jacinto, UP candidate for Madrid, who also risks falling below 5%, did not want to break it either. This gives us an idea of the density of the situation. Hermeneutics are needed to be able to decipher it.
Sumar has been presented in society as a brilliant project for the future, but it will not be presented as such in the next local and regional elections. This task is left in the hands of a sacrificed infantry, the left condemned to change its name every four years, which will try to defend the position while those at the top agree or disagree.
Speeches are nice, but the battle is in the trenches of the 5%. The Valencian socialists are perplexed at the orchestral movements in Madrid. They don't understand anything. A defeat of the left in Valencia due to lack of strength would cause a substantive alteration of the Spanish political map.
Valencia, Valencia, Valencia, the conquest of the Levant has for years been the obsession of Aznar, the best strategist of the right since 1990. With Andalusia, Madrid and Valencia, the Popular Party would have victory in the December generals. Against Andalusia, Madrid and Valencia it would be very difficult to govern Spain, even if the PSOE could articulate a majority, more unstable than the current one. If Valencia changes hands, Spanish politics changes.
The PP can add to Valencia. The left will have to work so that its splits and idealizations do not remain.
