Domestic policy and foreign policy form a dialectical unit. They are always in tension, they always condition each other. A country with a complicated internal situation can be more vulnerable to the big upheavals of international politics. A country with strong domestic consensus can better navigate the murky waters of foreign policy, but it will never be completely protected from the world's great tide. Dense internal fights usually summon the most aggressive external forces. The Spain of 2024 could become an example of this.
2024 will be a tough, maybe wild year. A year of ballot boxes and weapons. It has been summarized by Cidob, the prestigious international studies center based in Barcelona. A year of polls, as it is estimated that half of the world's population will be called to vote in more than seventy countries. (The European Union will renew the Parliament, there will be presidential elections in the United States and Russia, in Mexico and Indonesia, in Algeria and Venezuela; legislative elections in Portugal and perhaps in the United Kingdom, in Pakistan, in Taiwan, it is even planned that vote in Ukraine, in the middle of the fighting...) A year of arms. Russia, again on the offensive in Ukraine. Gaza is one step away from the great regional conflict in the Middle East, so far avoided by the United States and Iran. The instability in French-speaking Africa and so many other conflicts that may resurface as a result of the aggravation of international tensions everywhere. The arms trade is experiencing one of its best moments.
The closest example of the correlation between foreign policy and domestic policy can be found these days in the Red Sea, the naval routes of which can be seen as a direct consequence of the war in Gaza. The combative Shiite faction of Yemen, protected and armed by Iran, has begun to attack merchant ships in the Bab al-Mandab strait, the gateway that connects the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean. The primary target would be ships bound for or originating from the port of Eliat, the only Israeli port on the Red Sea, but major shipping companies, fearful of attacks, have instructed captains to take the route from Cape Bona Esperança, longer and more expensive, as it goes around the African continent. It is the route inaugurated by the Portuguese in the 15th century. Shipowners do not want to be scared and fear the increase in insurance prices.
Shipping rates between Europe and Asia have already risen by 16%. If this situation were to continue, it would not take long for a new rise in inflation to occur on an international scale. The United States, which is already escorting ships in the Red Sea, has convened an international coalition to maintain freedom of passage in Bab al-Mandab and share efforts. Spain has been invited.
Days before Christmas and correcting the Ministers of Defense and Foreign Affairs, the President of the Central Government took the decision to distance Spain from any military deployment in the Red Sea in the coming months. First, a direct participation in the operation announced by the United States, named Guardians of Prosperity, was rejected, and then it was discreetly vetoed in Brussels that the Atalanta operation against piracy in the Gulf of Aden (front of Bab al-Mandab), in force since 2009 and currently under Spanish military command, collaborate with the mission promoted by the United States. Josep Borrell, high representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, publicly defended the Atalanta option, with the silent support of the Spanish Ministries of Defense and Foreign Affairs. Pedro Sánchez ordered to stop on December 21 and the next day he received a call from Joe Biden, whose official reason was to congratulate him on the recent inauguration. After all these blunders, the latest Spanish position is to propose a specific European mission for the Red Sea, in which it would possibly not participate. Everything will depend on what happens during the month of January.
The United States will soon announce the countries that support its coalition. The European Union will have to opt for its own mission or invite to join the American military deployment. In accordance with these decisions, the shipping companies will have to decide whether to resume the route of Suez and the Red Sea or continue to divert in the direction of the Cape of Good Hope, despite the increase in costs. Iran will also have to decide whether to push Yemen's Houthi militias into a more aggressive escalation. One of the main trade routes in the world is at stake and Spain is not the only country that is hesitant, as Bab al-Mandab could become a war scene. High Spanish military commanders have discreetly expressed their perplexity at the situation created (see La Vanguardia of December 27), since a resounding refusal to intervene could end up affecting the reputation and coordination of the Spanish armed forces with NATO.
After the course correction on Morocco and the Western Sahara in March 2022, a turn that was carried out in harmony with the Secretary of State of the Government of the United States, it is the first time that President Sánchez enters into tension with Washington. It is not an unimportant subject, even if it has been quite disguised by the Christmas festivities. In January, the Red Sea will reappear and it is not certain that its waters will open to give way to concord.
Domestic policy and foreign policy. Sánchez did not want to reach the end of the year with the news of Spain's imminent participation in a possible war action, after having called for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, with strong criticism of the bloodbath caused by Government of Israel in retaliation for the savage attack by Hamas on October 7. Sánchez's words to Israel in favor of the ceasefire did not provoke the irritation of the United States in November and pleased several European governments that, for various reasons, could not express themselves publicly in the same tone. At that time, ex-president José María Aznar, very closely related to the Likud for more than twenty years, predicted that Israel would severely punish Spain for this stance. "Spain will pay dearly for this colossal mistake", he assured.
Foreign policy and internal policy. Sánchez did not want to start 2024 with the narrative framework of an imminent war action in the Red Sea, after having called for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. There are elections in Galicia on February 18 and the PSOE aspires to make the Popular Party lose its absolute majority, with the consequent blow to Alberto Núñez Feijóo, if that happens. It will not be easy for this circumstance to occur if we take into account the strength of the PP in Galicia and the noisy fragmentation of the candidacies of the Galician left. In January, the PSOE will hold a political conference in A Coruña and Sánchez does not want to arrive there with a Spanish destroyer patrolling the Red Sea. He may come to the February 18 election with a serious increase in shipping costs and a rift in the relationship with the US State Department. The elegant prints of the closure of the NATO summit in the Prado museum in June 2022 could turn yellow. Foreign policy and domestic policy sometimes form a devilish dialectical unit.
The results in Galicia will have some influence on the spring Basque elections (the date is not yet set), paving the way to the June 9 European elections in which foreign and domestic politics will see each other very closely. see And then comes the US presidential election, in which the course of the world can change again.
Spanish politics has gained complexity and elasticity after the elections of 23 July. The limits of this elasticity will be determined by the tide of the world.
Spanish politics
