As unexpected in Portugal as in Europe, where higher destinations awaited him, the fall of António Costa as prime minister due to his alleged involvement in a corruption case deals a political blow to European socialism far greater than the size of the country , as it makes even more evident the loneliness of its last two guardians, Pedro Sánchez and Olaf Scholz.
In 2024 it will be 30 years since the last victory of the European Socialist Party in the elections to the European Parliament. With just seven months to go before the big continental date with the ballot boxes, which will determine the future composition of the leadership of the main EU institutions, the outlook is not exactly encouraging for one of Europe's great political families, most affected by the atomization of the electorate of the European People's Party.
The right-wing of the continent is evident if you review the changes in the photos of the leaders at the Twenty-seven summits. Just over a year ago, European socialism lost one of its historical pillars, Sweden, with the election of the conservative Ulf Kristersson as prime minister, thanks to the external support of the ultra-right. This year, in March, they said goodbye to Finland with the defeat at the polls of Sanna Marin, one of the most recognizable figures of the current social democracy, who was replaced by a coalition of four parties, the most conservative in history from the Nordic country.
To this historic retreat in northern Europe, where only Denmark is retained, are added some dismal results in the last major electoral dates in Italy and France, and also an intense trickle of defeats in the extensive list of countries where the Social Democrats lack relevance, such as Central Europe or the Baltic republics. Meanwhile, the bittersweet victory of one of his own in Slovakia, Robert Fico, whose party has been suspended for his xenophobic positions, has shown that socialism is not immune to the wave of nativism sweeping Europe.
With Italy from September 2022 ruled by far-right Giorgia Meloni, the prospect of the July 23 election in Spain creating a coalition government of the Popular Party and Vox sent shivers down the spine of French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who were threatened respectively for the rise of Marine Le Pen and Alternative for Germany (this is right now the second party in vote intention, behind the Christian Democrats). But the relief that, in this context, the imminent investiture of Sánchez with the votes of progressives and nationalists offers to European socialism, since it maintains one of the great countries of the EU, the only one apart from Germany, has seen finally mitigated by the images of riots in the streets caused by the ultra-right and the harsh reaction of the Spanish conservative parties, and also of the judiciary, to the amnesty law agreed by the PSOE with Junts and ERC.
With the unexpected resignation of Costa, the Congress of the European Socialist Party held these days in Malaga, with Sánchez as host, has only had the presence of four more heads of government: Scholz; the Danish Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen; the Maltese Robert Abela, and the Romanian Marcel Ciolacu. If European social democracy used to be able to say that it governed from Copenhagen to Lisbon, now this imaginary line – with fewer and fewer points of support and no stopover in Paris for a few years – is cut dry in Madrid.
About to complete eight years in power, Costa has been an inspiration and a faithful ally of Sánchez and of Spain in the EU. His name rang out in Brussels as a firm successor to Charles Michel at the head of the European Council; the Portuguese leader neither confirmed nor denied his interest, but in July, during a night walk through Vilnius on the sidelines of the NATO summit, several correspondents could see the sparkle in his eyes when his possible appointment With his fall, the socialists have been left without any clear figure to propose to lead any community institution in the next distribution of positions.
Sánchez arrived a day ahead of schedule in Malaga to meet with his German colleague already on Friday. But if the Spaniard is about to take the reins of his third government, with a vocation to exhaust the four years of the legislature that is now beginning, the number one of the German SDP, on the other hand, is already at the equator of the his mandate, and governs in permanent negotiation with his green and liberal partners and with the polls against him.
Deprived of Costa, with whom he launched European initiatives such as the Iberian mechanism or the creation of the post-covid recovery plan, Sánchez will have to rely more than ever on Scholz to assert progressive positions. The increasing right-wing of the European Council, and also the divergence of interests in key files such as fiscal rules, energy policy or State aid do not invite us to think about great understandings between Madrid and Berlin, where the pending subject continues being able to weave agreements with Paris.
