If we remove man from the equation and we are left only with the rationality and self-interest of the states, the conflicts in Europe and the Near East are wars of conquest and domination, like all throughout history. Eliminating the man means ignoring the interests of leaders to stay in power and take responsibility for the lives lost in Gaza, Ukraine and beyond, something we are already doing under the anesthesia of constant, abstract information.
Israel, which has suffered greatly and abandoned the abductees to their fate, will punish whatever it deems necessary to restore deterrence on its enemies. They want to see how their people die if they are attacked. The ultra-nationalist Government will not loosen the rope.
Iran, which has been in the corner of the outcasts for decades, will not relax either. The Guardians of the Revolution, hard core of power, have taken the reins. "Strategic patience" has not worked. It is no longer worth punishing Israel by means of intervening militias. Even Hizbullah has ceased to be a deterrent. Israel assassinates Iranian commanders in Damascus without the intelligence services knowing about it and reaches the nuclear facilities in Isfahan without problems. The aerospace force is a mess. The Houthis barely disrupt maritime traffic in the Red Sea and Gaza is lost.
Since the US left the nuclear deal in 2018, Iran has found new friends in Russia and China. And he is closer than ever to the atomic bomb, but he needs Russia on his side. That's why he sells him drones and missiles to attack Ukraine. Because on its own it will not be able to stop Israel, and even less if the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Jordan help it, as they have already done.
Russia is doing well in the war in Gaza. It distracts and tires its main enemies in Europe, starting with the United States. Meanwhile, it consolidates its presence in North Africa and the Sahel, where it gladly assumes the role of liberator from French neocolonialism.
There is no doubt that Russia is encircling Europe. Ukraine is the most important front of a much wider offensive that extends along the southern shore of the Mediterranean.
The Russian Navy has two ports in the Mediterranean: Tartus (Syria) and Tubruq (Libya), where it disembarks tons of weapons. Wagner has been in Libya since 2018. He supports Benghazi separatists. But Moscow is also on good terms with the Tripoli Government, internationally recognized and guardian of its oil interests. Libya has the most important oil reserves in Africa and Russia helps it exploit several fields. That's why it plays on two sides, between Tripoli and Benghazi. He doesn't just need Tobruk, but the whole country, because Libya connects the Sahel with the Mediterranean and Europe. Russia aspires to control the area of influence of Western Europe in Africa and this implies the control of migratory flows in the central Mediterranean. The EU is paying Tunisia and Libya to stop migrants, but Russia will step up the offer and, if necessary, China will foot the bill. Tunisia is too small and weak to oppose it and Algeria has always been on good terms with Russia. Spain will no longer see the war so far away.
Turkey is also an ally of Tripoli-based Libya, and since October 7 there have been fewer disagreements with Russia. The relationship improves. Both support Hamas. Turkey, because it wants to lead the Muslim world, and Russia, because it wants to do the same with the Global South. Trade between the two countries is breaking records and they no longer fight so much over Libya, Syria or the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in Transcaucasia.
Russia's marriages with Hamas, Iran, Libya and Turkey are of convenience, but they work, because there is nothing that unites them but economic, military and political interests. These couples believe that love, culture and ethical values are outdated quirks and that only weak countries are swayed by emotions, that is, by the human factor, precisely what we have tried to remove from this analysis to see more clearly the game being played in Europe, the Near East and the Mediterranean: Russia, once again, against Europe and the United States, while China watches from the sidelines, hoping to take advantage of the opportunities offered by all wars In this case it is the sale of military technology to Russia, access to energy from Iran, Libya and Russia itself and, when the time comes, contracts to rebuild Gaza.
Israel also has a chance. A golden one to rehabilitate its damaged reputation halfway around the world. If it accepts a ceasefire in Gaza, Iran will lose much of its argument for continuing to attack. If, at the same time, he breaks with Russia and unequivocally embraces the cause of Ukraine, something he has not done for fear of what might happen to Russian Jews, he will improve his standing in Europe, the United States and the Sunni Middle East which opposes Iran. Israel no longer needs, as it has until now, to celebrate Russia in order to contain Iran. It needs to regain lost legitimacy in Gaza to contain an enemy far more dangerous than Hamas. If he gives up on completely and immediately destroying Hamas, he will have a much easier time cornering the Ayatollahs and weakening Russia for the benefit of Europe, the US and Iranian society.
It would be the most convenient, although it might not be the most likely.
