Pere Aragonès “has a lot of patience, but his patience is not infinite.” That has been a mantra at Palau de la Generalitat for three years. He is not a lover of improvisations either. He is institutionally “predictable.” That's why ten days ago he put his team to work on an election scenario. “For what could happen” given the refusal of the commons to give in with the budgets. The notices were extended. On Monday in the direction of ERC and the pinyol of the Government; and on Wednesday, from 8 a.m., in the party executive and the Parliament group. "Everything was ready". While in the Aragon Parliament he wrote on the bench, in Palau chairs and the lectern were moved to the Gothic gallery. At noon, nine councilors had lunch together in El Born waiting for the signal. The commons did not fail.
Aragonès wrote his own campaign hit to announce the elections: “Catalonia will choose between responsibility and irresponsibility.” He repeated “irresponsibility” four times, that of the commons and Junts, and another eight times the “no” to a battery of investment items in education, health, infrastructure... Was the problem Hard Rock or was it Ada Colau? There is no doubt in ERC's response: the closure of the commons has “a lot” to do with a former mayor who has been left out of the game in Barcelona City Council. The correlation of forces in the Catalan capital is the only thing that has changed compared to the three previous budget negotiations in which ERC has swallowed “toads” for the benefit of Colau…
Jéssica Albiach proclaims that “Madrid does not rule us ordinary people” after a week speculating on a conversation between Aragonès and Yolanda Díaz. But the contact only came hours before no. The president sent a message warning of the seriousness of the situation and the “uncontrollable consequences” also for the Government of Pedro Sánchez. Diaz responded by urging a phone call. In ERC they warn of the unreliability of the Sumar conglomerate – and surrounding areas – and point it out as an element of political destabilization. The difficulties of the Sánchez Government, dependent on ERC and Junts, now weigh on Díaz. Aragonès will explain himself on Wednesday in Madrid and it will be relevant to see who comes from the Government.
The agreements are round trip. From the Generalitat to the Moncloa. The devastated bridges and the order of the games on 12-M will alter the final product. Political fragmentation can leave a devilish arithmetic that makes sociovergence, or the pro-independence majority, unviable from a left-wing tripartite. Now ERC's objective is not to get caught up in either the supposed epic of Carles Puigdemont's return or the debate on post-electoral alliances. Aragonès points to Salvador Illa as an opponent to beat – that's what the internal polls say – and not the former president. The Amnesty law is not a saint of the devotion of the PSC voter borrowed in 2021, coming mainly from Ciudadanos, but Illa's speech continues to appeal to “turn the page” and a political normalization already installed in Catalonia where everyone has agreed with everyone . The dependence on the PSOE, the rejection of singular financing and… why not, a return to mans netes in the face of the Koldo case will be Aragonès' arguments against the PSC leader most loyal to Sánchez.
So much for the usual campaign. With Junts come uncertainties. The post-convergents sit at a dialogue table with the PSOE thanks to Puigdemont's hyper-leadership, but he also silences his political alternative. What will the former president offer for 12-M? His lawyer draws a return with arrest that grants a mantle of heroism to the candidate. And “the State never fails,” claim the old convergers. Junts is willing to take risks that have always been avoided since Waterloo. The application of the amnesty leaves black holes in the calendar that now become windows of opportunity to regroup the independence vote around Puigdemont.
ERC believes that holding the presidency has been crucial in the dialogue process and persistence in demanding a referendum. Puigdemont wants it back. And he goes “to all of them.” The votes are missing.
