The European Union has run out of patience with Viktor Orbán, the prime minister of Hungary. In Brussels, political and economic pressure strategies that have never been seen before are beginning to move to try to get the ultra-nationalist Hungarian leader to stop blocking the reform of the EU budget that will allow 50 billion euros in aid and loans to be dedicated to Ukraine, the umpteenth pole against its European partners that the veteran leader, in power since 2010, has embarked on.
The negotiations are not progressing and – as so often, whether it is the sanctions on Russia or any measure of support for Kyiv – Orbán remains entrenched in his veto of a decision that the other 26 countries of the club do support. This time the bluster can have consequences. Frustrated, several countries have put on the table the possibility of activating Article 7 of the Treaty of the Union and depriving Hungary of its right to vote in the Council as a result of its persistent violations of the rule of law while, in parallel At the same time, community technicians outline possible ways of economic pressure against the country with the intention of making Orbán reflect.
"If there is no agreement [at the summit convened] on February 1, the other heads of State and Government could declare that, in view of the obstructionist behavior of the Prime Minister of Hungary", they cannot imagine " how the EU continues to give funds to Budapest", raises a document drawn up by the General Secretariat of the Council, revealed before last night by the Financial Times newspaper. Without EU funding, "financial markets and European companies could be much less interested in investing in Hungary", a situation that "could further raise the costs of financing the public deficit and cause a fall in its currency", the Hungarian forint, estimates the document, which reviews the delicate financial situation of the country.
"It's not a plan, it's a suggestion," state European diplomatic sources, who confirm the authenticity of the note, drawn up by the General Secretariat of the Council. The reflection on a possible economic boycott against an EU partner comes as calls grow to move forward with the open case against Hungary for its violations of the rule of law and to press the "nuclear button", the possibility to withdraw - him the right to vote. Such a decision must be approved unanimously, and while the ultra-conservative Law and Justice party was in power in Poland, it was assumed that it would block it. Now Donald Tusk (European People's Party) governs and, although Orbán has a new ally in Slovakia, Robert Fico, things are changing.
Berlin is in favor of "hardening" the response. "It is no coincidence that the EU member state that most violates our common values is also the country that is outside the EU consensus on aid to Ukraine", criticized the German State Secretary for in the EU, Anna Lührmann, who called it unacceptable that Budapest has not yet ratified Sweden's entry into NATO.
"Hungary does not give in to blackmail", replied its Minister for European Affairs, János Bóka, on social networks. "The document drawn up by the bureaucrats in Brussels only confirms what the Hungarian Government has been saying for a long time, that access to European funds is used for the purpose of political blackmail", replied Bóka, who assures that his The government continues to hold "constructive discussions" with the other EU partners. However, after it became known on Friday that several countries were betting on withdrawing the right to vote, the Hungarian Government sent another compromise proposal to Brussels.
Barring the economic pressure strategy being fully implemented, the document illustrates the level of EU frustration and uneasiness with Orbán, the only European leader who has not cut ties with Vladimir Putin since the Russian invasion of Ukraine (in December the two met in Beijing) and a leader in addition to the European ultraconservative movement against the model of liberal democracies.
The Twenty-seven will hold an extraordinary summit on Thursday to try to unblock the situation. The meeting was called after the failure of the negotiations in December, when Orbán made it a condition that Brussels unblock more than 20,000 million euros that it has frozen as a result of repeated violations of the rule of law; in particular, due to its problems of corruption and lack of judicial independence.
