The war in Palestine takes another step in the geopolitical and economic ungovernability that has gripped the world for the past two decades. The crisis of globalization. At the same time, it strengthens the circle of fires that surrounds a powerless Europe: from the southern Mediterranean and the Sahel to Eastern Europe, passing through the Middle East, Turkey and the Caucasus (Nagorno-Karabakh). With all the unknowns still to be clarified, some fairly obvious consequences could be ventured.
Firstly, a new impetus to the militarization of international relations and with it the economy. The war in Ukraine made it clear that the European partners of the US had to spend more on weapons, which they will have to buy from their American friend; now the crisis in the Near East and the alignment chosen by Europe do not allow us to see any way out that does not go through a strengthening of defense structures, especially those linked to facing a possible recrudescence of attacks like those at the beginning of the century. Expenditure that, by definition, is as unproductive as it is inflationary and is paid for by resorting to more debt and public deficit.
The interpretation of what is happening in Israel and Gaza as a new conflict between the two axes that compete on a global scale is part of the official narrative. It will fuel protectionist trade wars between the West and China. Israel has expressed its displeasure with the Xi regime and therefore considers its lukewarm reaction to the Hamas coup. Beijing is not on the same frequency as Brussels and Washington. It's pretty clear that after this episode, things are going to get worse.
While last weekend's Islamist attack was being forged, the European Commission was preparing the announcement that it will investigate China's steel subsidies. A US demand not to reimpose tariffs on European steel that Donald Trump approved in 2018, the Financial Times reported. File that is added to that of electric vehicles and soon to that of wind turbines.
Calls are growing in Europe to cut investment and relations with China, in line with Washington. The last, that of the emblematic Bundesbank, the German central bank. If they prosper, German dependence on the US will be maximum. With the consequent drag effect for the rest of the European partners.
The first analyzes of the economic effects of the current conflict focus on the moderate rise in oil and especially gas prices, an additional contribution to inflation. But the economy already accumulates many burdens and shadows; any additional episode can be the trigger for a major downfall.
Jamie Dimon, the president and CEO of JP Morgan, one of the main investment banks on Wall Street, has said that "this could be the most dangerous moment the world has experienced in decades". Alarmist, prosaic interest in doing business or militant patriotism?
The gravity of the situation will go beyond the rerun of previous clashes. The magnitude of the attack by Hamas and the response announced by Israel point to an unknown escalation.
Their influence on Europe is already visible, they have been noticed. A simple example, the cuts in basic freedoms, such as the right of expression and demonstration, in the three most important countries of Western Europe (defender of these values): the United Kingdom, France and Germany. Something not seen in decades. Not at all encouraging trend at the gates of the debate to approve new fiscal, expenditure reduction and deficit rules that will generate social tension, and a macro process of expansion is being prepared. The pathetic presence of Ursula von der Leyen in Israel will aggravate European disorientation.
One possibility is that the immediate trigger for Hamas's action was its desperate attempt to take advantage of a global power vacuum: the social division of an occupier ruled by a questionable Benjamin Netanyahu; the internal political chaos in Joe Biden's USA; the focus of this superpower and its European satellites on the war in Ukraine and the competition with a more nationalistic China; a lack of general understanding for the fate of the Palestinians, apparently resigned to their extinction and outside global agendas. The purpose, according to many analysts, is to try to block an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia and to claim the role of the terrorist organization and its protector Iran in any future design of the area. A challenge to the US operation to normalize Israel's relations with Arab countries, from Morocco to Saudi Arabia.
If this happens, the crisis of world order will worsen. It already has as relevant chapters the great recession of 2008; the trade war between the West and China, the definitive breakdown of Afghanistan; the invasion of Ukraine; the military coups in Africa; the migrations of millions of desperate people and the inability to face climate change. A multiplication of problems that would place the main agent of order, the United States, in a situation of extreme tension if it does not properly adjust the reactions of its allies. In this case, Israel. If the result is the opposite, they will have consolidated their hegemony. That is why he needs the war not to spread.
This in turn is strongly linked to the military action that Israel undertakes. Depending on the dimension, it may invite groups like Hizbullah to intervene, in this case from Lebanon. On Friday, the second highest leader of this group, Naim Qassem, assured: "The calls behind the scenes of the great powers, the Arab countries and the envoys of the United Nations, telling us not to interfere will have no effect." If he keeps his word, the dominoes will be set in motion. The first affected, bordering countries such as Egypt and Jordan, with already very precarious stability and which will suffer social upheavals. Then Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey... No one knows where the end is.
