The geography of wine is changing and will change much more in the coming years in up to 70% of the current cultivation and production areas due to the effects that the increase in temperatures and the alteration of precipitation have on the yield of the grapes, the composition at the time of harvest and the quality of the resulting wine. This is the main conclusion of a new study on the impact of climate change on world viticulture carried out by researchers from the universities of Bordeaux (France) and Palermo (Italy).
In the event that the increase in temperatures is greater than 2º C, "90% of the traditional coastal and lowland wine-growing regions of Spain, Italy, Greece and southern California could suffer a great loss of suitability [they would make the production of top quality wine impossible] by the end of this century due to excessive drought and more frequent heat waves,” warn the authors of the study.
In the section on regions potentially benefiting from the new climate conditions, the authors point out that "between 11% and 25% of current wine-growing regions could experience increased production, such as the states of Washington and Oregon ( States United States), Tasmania and Northern France”.
In addition, "new suitable areas could emerge in higher latitudes and altitudes, such as for example in the south of the United Kingdom", taking into account, however, the level of temperature increase, point out the authors of the work.
The effects of global warming on the wine sector have been studied for years and in some cases crop adaptations to the new conditions are already being applied.
The work now presented, published March 26 in the journal Nature Reviews Earth
In addition, the team that signed the study, led by Cornelis van Leeuwen, professor of viticulture and head of department at the Bordeaux Sciences Agro, also points out the areas of the planet where, due to the new climatic conditions, it could expand viticulture and proposes a detailed monitoring "of the impacts on natural ecosystems and biodiversity in order to mitigate any negative impact".
The combination of rising temperatures and reduced rainfall will cause a serious risk of drought in the southern Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Mediterranean Spain, the Po Valley and the northern coast of Italy, the Balkans and the south-west of the Black Sea, the study details.
In these areas, heat waves and lack of water "could make any extensive project unsustainable and increase the risk that the crops will lose their suitability, that is, that high quality wine will not be produced".
In addition, warmer conditions and greater exposure to solar radiation (burning the leaves and the vine) negatively affect both yield and wine quality in these areas.
“In severe warming scenarios [more than 2ºC increase], most of the Mediterranean regions below 45° N could become climatically unsuitable for wine and vineyard production, and the only alternative in these zones would be the vineyards at the highest altitude".
However, the authors calculate that "only a small portion of this loss - less than 20% - can potentially be compensated by moving the vineyards to mountainous areas".
Also for severe warming scenarios, the authors indicate that "a transition to later maturing grape varieties in these regions is likely to be necessary."
In contrast, Galicia, the northern Balkans and, in general, areas above 46°N are expected to benefit from warming, at least for limited levels of temperature increase.
It should also be borne in mind that, in some of these cases, early budding could increase the risk of spring frosts.
In Europe as a whole, new wine-growing regions are expected to expand northwards, especially along the Atlantic sector, resulting in a net increase of climatically suitable areas in Europe of up to 60%.
However, as the authors of the study acknowledge, this expansion is purely theoretical and refers solely to climatic conditions, without taking into account soil quality, pre-existing land use and other factors crucial to the establishment of new vineyards.
