Donald Trump's disturbing statements, in which he encourages Russia to do "whatever it wants" in other allied countries, only reaffirm the urgency for Europe to "take the reins of its destiny" and prepare for withdrawal of the United States, points out Arancha González Laya, dean of the Paris School of International Affairs at Sciences Po University and former Minister of Foreign Affairs. The goal, whatever happens in November, is to build a "Trump-proof" Europe, as Laya (Donosti, 1969) and other academics defend in a recent open letter that is a real call to action.
The Republican Party either shares Trump's vision of NATO or doesn't take it seriously, can Europe do this?
We know from experience that you have to take Trump's statements very seriously, especially when they erode NATO's deterrence capacity, as in this case. But we need to go further. The EU must prepare to resist Trump's attacks with more European integration. More Europe means more protection.
We already feel the power of Trump, don't we? Without even being a candidate, he has been preventing Congress from agreeing on aid to Kyiv for months.
The impact of Trump's possible return to the White House is already being felt. We should not wait for the result of the elections, there are already a lot of areas where it is noticeable and the war in Ukraine is one of them, the main actors are already aligning themselves with the possibility that it will return and this should make us Europeans think a lot and give us work, because the first time Donald Trump's arrival caught us off guard, but not the second time. We must prepare now, starting today, without waiting for the new US president to take office. We have to start preparing and the issue of Ukraine, which is closely linked to investments in security and defense in Europe, is a priority area.
What can you do right now?
In the short term, Europe must invest in manufacturing more ammunition and more weapons. The European Union must boost its defense industry and it must do so with European-wide planning, because this is what will give the signal to the arms industry that it must increase not only production, but the ability to production We already have some goals that we have set, for example in ammunition, which are useful and necessary not only to help Ukraine, but to replenish the arsenals emptied by having helped Ukraine.
And in the medium term?
It is necessary to start working in the direction of making NATO more European. Not to abandon it, but to assume more responsibilities in the Alliance so that they allow us to build part of the solutions, for example in activities to support the troops such as intelligence services, interconnectivity, satellites, space. .. We must understand that, in the medium and long term, regardless of who is president, the United States will withdraw and invest less in foreign security, especially in the Atlantic, and that, therefore, we must 'assume more responsibility for our own security and defence.
Isn't there a hypothetical victory for Joe Biden? Or would it simply not change anything, because of the trends you are talking about?
As the English saying goes, expect the best and prepare for the worst.
Trump says that, if he is re-elected president, he will resolve the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. This can only mean one thing. What would it mean for Kyiv and for Europe if the war ended like this?
For us it is essential that this war does not end as a victory for the aggressor and invader, which is Vladimir Putin. Obviously all wars end in an agreement, the question is how this agreement is reached. Terms matter. Because if we give Putin the benefit of winning after being the aggressor, the invader, who has broken international rules regarding Ukraine, the message we would give him would be almost an invitation to do the same in other parts of the continent european In addition, there are other international actors who are also looking at what is happening in Ukraine. Let's not forget that today there is no conflict that is local. All major conflicts have a global dimension, and so how each one is handled matters.
If the war in Ukraine ends with major concessions, would Putin dare to test NATO's Article 5 on mutual defense? Should Europe fear for its territorial integrity?
Today we cannot exclude any hypothesis, not even that Putin will test NATO. We can't because all the ones we had excluded have happened. Brexit, the election of Trump, the Russian invasion of Ukraine beyond Crimea, the return of a high-voltage conflict between Israel and Palestine... We do not rule anything out, we act and reduce the risks if there are any there is any aggression. Obviously, there is a need to discuss security and defense. I think we will have an incredible opportunity in the European elections in June.
They are European elections but they are generally approached in a national key...
The European elections of 2024 are about one issue and one thing only: whether Europe has the ability to decide its destiny or whether it puts it in the hands of others and, in particular, of the American voter. We need to answer the fundamental question in June and prepare to answer it as soon as the election is over: unity or division and vacillation? Does Europe want to own its destiny or will it leave it in the hands of others? These European elections are about that.
