Five more seats for the right and six fewer for the centre-left, without in any case there having been a decisive change in the correlation of forces to form a government. This is the joint balance sheet of the two electoral repeats registered so far in Spain, the previously unpublished ones of June 2016 and November 2019. In terms of votes, the account of losses and gains also favors the block led by the PP, with an advance of 1.7 percentage points, compared to the drop of 1.2 registered by the party led by the PSOE.
These increases on the right appear closely linked to participation, which fell by 4.6 points on average, attributable in principle to a greater demobilization of the left. In 2015, it was at an average level, within the framework of the previous trajectory, with 73.2%. In 2016 it fell to 69.8%. In 2019, the decline was more abrupt, because in April a high rate of 75.6% was reached, not far from that of 2004 after the Islamist attacks. Then, in November it returned to 69.9%.
The turnout at the polls on July 23 was 70.1%, very similar. However, it is a complete secret, accessible only to those who do the comparison well. Interior always takes as a reference the previous total results, which include the very abstentionist Spain outside and leads to misunderstandings, as this time the participation increased four points.
It was stable, at the level of the repetitions, which leads to the unknown of whether in the event of new elections it would fall again like in 2016 and 2019, which would generate a serious problem for the centre-left. There is a possibility that it will not be reduced further, because it is already very low. You have to go back to 1979, the era of disenchantment, to find a lower rate of 68%. In addition, it would go from an exceptional date, July, to a normal one.
In the results it would be crazy to conclude that, since the right grew six seats in 2016, from 163 to 169, and four in 2019, from 149 to 153, with this average of five, in a hypothetical repetition PP and Vox will go from 170 to 175, so that its candidate, in principle Alberto Núñez Feijóo, would have to be satisfied with the abstention of Unió del Poble Navarrès or Coalició Canària. Electoral mathematics has some constants, but the political arithmetic of a fact of the complexity of the failure of a legislature does not exist. It is an unpredictable process, although the two previous experiences offer some clues.
The most outstanding and paradoxical element of the two returns to the polls lies in the fact that the solution that allowed the unblocking both after the elections of June 2016 and after those of November 2019, already existed in December 2015 in one case and April 2019, in the other. What changed was the context. The first time was with the defenestration of Pedro Sánchez by the barons of the PSOE to allow the investiture of Mariano Rajoy. In the second, after Albert Rivera's Ciutadans' suicidal knock on the socialists' door, the latter's acceptance of a coalition government with Unides Podemos. What he prioritized was the general panic of bringing Spain to a third election.
If there is a third repetition, we could talk about a kind of Spanish second round, de facto and informal. Until now it has been characterized by parliamentary cheetahism, since everything changed to remain the same. Thus, it is essential how the failure is staged. In sports it would be said that it is a time when myths are born and legends die, as happened in 2019 on the right with the ascension, now much diminished, of the ultra Santiago Abascal and the self-destruction of Rivera blinded by the ring of power
In this dramatization, the script can obviously be improved. The Constitution does not set a deadline for starting the countdown to dissolution. It is the famous starting of the clock, critical in 2016 when Rajoy did not want to go to the investiture, although this problem is not visible now.
Faced with the gains of the right, always counting confluences such as Navarra Suma and those of Podemos and Més País, the left passed in the first repetition from 161 to 156, and in the second, from 165 to 158. In terms of votes, it is more complicated , because in 2015 the right won by 3.7 points, but lost in deputies due to the brutal punishment of the electoral system in IU. Its absorption by Podemos in 2016 meant that the strong conservative rise did not translate into the absolute majority it would have obtained with IU again alone, as can be seen by simulating its results separately. In any case, in 2016 the progressives dropped by 2.5%.
While on its scale nationalism did achieve a great advance in 2019, from 8% to 10%, compared to its weak stability in 2015-2016, in what concerns the two big blocs four years ago there were a successive tie at 43%.
On the other hand, thirteen days ago PP and Vox prevailed over PSOE and Sumar by 16 seats and 1.4 points. But like a comic book hero, Pedro Sánchez escaped in extremis from the monster's throat, but, always maintaining the narrative tension, he was left in the worst possible alternative scenario, that of depending on Carles Puigdemont.
Even so, the progressive block is in a better position. He has the power. In both 2016 and 2019, the incumbent president ended up being invested. The surprise of the result, induced by the resounding error of most of the polls, with those of the until then almost infallible Narciso Michavila, gave him morale.
If Junts rejects the PSOE and there are elections, the main campaign message of the right, that of Sánchez the traitor who makes an agreement with Spain's enemies, would fall away. However, there are no certainties, only indications, such as the replay figures favoring the right.
