The PNV event this Saturday in Durango, in which it will confirm the official designation of Imanol Pradales as candidate for lehendakari, will mark the beginning of the electoral pre-campaign and will probably precede the imminent confirmation of the date for the elections. Everything indicates that the elections will take place in April, although it is the Basque nationalists who manage the times, and EH Bildu has wanted to begin to position itself with a summons to the PNV that will bring tail: the abertzale coalition has demanded from the jeltzales a commitment to that governs the list with the most votes.
The independence party, in fact, has already committed to letting the force with the most votes govern and it is evident that one of its strategies for the coming months is to appeal to this maxim, seeking the commitment of the Jeltzales or, in other words, its defect, its wear.
The EH Bildu candidate, Pello Otxandiano, explained that his formation already applies this maxim in all institutions, with the nuance that it does not include the “reactionary right with a regressive agenda.” There, he gave the examples of Navarra and Pamplona: “In Navarra as a whole, the PSN is the first progressive force and we allow it to govern, compared to the UPN option. In Iruña, on the other hand, EH Bildu is the first progressive force. The democratic mandate that emanates from the polls in this country is to exclude that right from the political equation, from there there remains a block of parties, more or less progressive, in which we include the PNV, which must be part of the transformative agenda.”
The location of the nationalist party shows, on the one hand, the optimism with which they face the Basque elections, since they aspire to overcome a difference that four years ago was 10 seats (out of 75) and 100,000 votes. On the other hand, it reflects that being the first force is really the only feasible formula for EH Bildu in order to assault the Lehendakaritza.
The PSE has already made it clear that its strategic ally in Euskadi is the PNV and that it has no desire to extend the formula agreed in Pamplona with the socialists for the motion of censure against UPN. Probably, only a clear victory for EH Bildu could alter the alliance policy. In the event that the Abertzale coalition is not the first force, they will have to settle with the objective that PNV and PSE do not gain an absolute majority. This situation would open a wide range of possibilities, from the option of seeking agreements with the PP, with the wear and tear that would entail, to the possibility of the Jeltzales looking at EH Bildu.
The optimism of the Abertzale coalition has to do with its good results in the municipal and regional elections in May, and in the general elections in July, but also with the trend indicated by the first surveys that are being published and that show a very close fight between the two main Basque formations.
Based on the surveys published this month, already with the names of the main candidates, the Sigma Dos barometer gives the PNV 28 seats, compared to the 25 that EH Bildu would obtain, while the PSE would obtain 12, the PP 6 seats and Sumar , 4. The survey carried out by Electomanía for Crónica Vasca-El Español, meanwhile, grants 27 seats to EH Bildu, compared to 26 for the PNV. The PSE would obtain 11, the PP 7, Sumar 3 and Vox 1.
Last month, on the other hand, the Basque Government's Sociometer gave the PNV 29 seats, while EH Bildu would achieve 25, the PSE 11, the PP 7 and a Sumar- Podemos coalition, whose future is still up in the air, 3 seats. This survey was prepared before the main candidates were known.
The difference between these two formations, in any case, would be significantly reduced compared to the 10 seats difference four years ago. This adjustment of the correlation of forces is, in fact, one of the characteristics that is leading to talk of a new cycle in Basque politics, also marked by the arrival of new protagonists and by the possibility of alliance policies changing. The fact that there is even speculation that EH Bildu could surpass the PNV in elections to the Basque Parliament, something unthinkable a few years ago, is sufficiently expressive of this change. Now, it remains to be seen how the PNV responds to the dart launched by EH Bildu.
