Three weeks before the elections in Euskadi, the Aberri Eguna, Basque Country Day, is marked by the electoral context and the disputed struggle between the two main Basque formations. The polls show that EH Bildu has the tail wind and predict even an overtake in seats in the PNB on April 21, a milestone that, in any case, would be nothing more than a symbolic victory, since the Jeltzales have many options to maintain power, thanks to the PSE. Polls also suggest that the next Basque Parliament will be, by far, the most abertzale or Basque nationalist in history, something that runs into an apparent contradiction with the verified loss of weight of the desire for independence.
Basque society votes more abertzale than ever – to use a term with which both the PNB and Bildu identify – but the pro-independence cause is close to its lowest point in the last quarter of a century. According to the latest Basque Government Sociometer, published last week, only 22% of Basque society "agree" with independence, 33% "would agree or not depending on the circumstances", 37% there is "against" and 8% "don't know, don't answer".
In fact, the independence option appears as a minority among PNB voters (18% in favor, 41% depending on the circumstances and 37% against) and there is some ambivalence on the issue among EH Bildu voters ( 57% in favor, 35% depending on the circumstances and 6% against).
This apparent contradiction invites an analysis, starting from the previous element: the aforementioned loss of support for independence. According to the opinion of the sociologist Eva Silván, several factors must be taken into account, even though the frustration generated in independence by the Catalan process has been very relevant.
"The instability caused by the Catalonia process, with little success and much division, has been key. It has been established that independence is not viable today and it seems that this is how society has read it", he says. The data corroborate this analysis. The peak in support for independence over the past 25 years took place a decade ago, in 2014, in the midst of the process and in the context of the independence referendum in Scotland. The lowest records, meanwhile, occurred from 2021, although also, on occasion, in 2001 and 2002.
In the absence of a qualitative study, the data suggest that Basque society took note of the most traumatic consequences of the process and noted the extreme difficulty of carrying out express independence. Likewise, other factors that could have weakened the pro-independence cause should be pointed out, such as the state of mind in which Basque society still finds itself after the end of terrorism, a "post-traumatic phase" - using a term coined by the professor in History of the University of the Basque Country Ludger Mess–, in which we do not want to return to polarization and confrontation.
On the other hand, it must be taken into account that, as a result of the previous economic crisis and also of the lightning-fast irruption of Podemos in Euskadi, the social agenda was revalued to the detriment of the national one, which forced the parties to move
In view of this loss of weight in unconditional support for independence, the same source, the Basque Sociometer, last week estimated a tie between PNB and EH Bildu at 29 seats, so that 58 seats out of a total of 75 would be Basque nationalists, abertzales or sovereignists. With 77% of the representation that these formations would add, the Basque Parliament that emerged from the polls on April 21 would be, by far, the most nationalist in history.
In fact, until the previous elections, in July 2020, the Abertzales formations had never exceeded 48 seats (then they added 52). During the first decade of this century and in the nineties, the sum of the PNB, the Abertzale left and Eusko Alkartasuna averaged 39-44 seats, and in the eighties, both before and after the split of EA, came close to 43 seats.
In this case too, there are many factors that explain this other trend, although essentially it can be said that the Abertzale formations have adapted better than the rest to the Basque Country post ETA. In a context of the decline of independence, Bildu has been able to expand its space by prioritizing social discourse and seeking to attract a wide spectrum of voters. Faced with the temptation to be a mere reproduction of the extinct Batasuna, it has won, albeit with tensions and difficulties, the option of trying to present itself as the sum of the parties that make up the coalition: Sortu, EA, Aralar and Alternatiba, a spin-off from Ezker Batua-EU.
"EH Bildu has been able to read the political moment. It is growing because it shows itself as a party that wants to govern, with different proposals and with a country plan that talks about industry, the economy, care, knowledge management... It has generated a narrative about how it should be the country in a global context and beyond the axis of identity", underlines Silván.
The PNB has also managed to position itself in the post-terrorism cycle, even though the polls show a decline that was already seen in the last appointments with the ballot boxes. This formation reached its historical ceiling of votes and institutional power in 2019. “Urkullu got a bad result in 2012, at a time when Bildu had already broken through strongly. He knew how to read Basque society and interpreted that it needed a time to calm down, to heal wounds and to move forward in coexistence. The PNB has grown since then, especially at the expense of the PP, although now we see that it is losing support because it has suffered in its main card, that of good management", explains Silván.
Other external factors and the worst performance of their political rivals have also contributed to the strengthening of the two large national formations. The generational shift and the entry on the scene of a generation that has not experienced terrorism have favored Bildu, while the gradual political normalization has contributed to the vote being more volatile, especially among young people, and unthinkable transfers can occur years ago. The same struggle between the two formations and the growing bipartisan perception of Basque politics has also allowed them to strengthen each other.
During the present pre-campaign, both the PNB and Bildu have put the territorial issue on the table and have spoken of the need to agree on a new status. However, even this claim is now accompanied by an instrumental nuance. The PNB talks about more self-government to live better, and Bildu about "a new status as a transformation lever to make 21st century policies".
These formations will not park the territorial question, but on their national agenda they will reward in the short term competence issues, linked to the improvement of self-government, symbolic, of a linguistic and cultural nature or related to the relationship with the French Basque Country and Navarre, two territories where pragmatism has brought Bildu to its greatest heights of political influence. "Politics are cycles and maybe in 15 years we will see them in other positions. At this moment, everything points to a Basque Parliament that is more nationalist than ever, but in which the pro-independence agenda will be less present", concludes Silván.
On the occasion of the Aberri Eguna, proclamations in favor of independence will be heard today and the two formations will raise the national demand, although the truth is that part of their success has come precisely from having been able to relativize this maxim.
