Are we facing the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era? Will they stop being extracted one day? This is the backdrop to the negotiations of the imminent UN climate change conference (COP28) to be held in Dubai (United Arab Emirates) between November 30 (this Thursday) and December 12. Over the course of almost two weeks, 70,000 delegates from 198 nations will try to define a response and the possibilities that remain to avoid a warming above 1.5ºC (with respect to the pre-industrial era), set as the first threshold in the Agreement on Paris to avoid catastrophic climate damage.
The summit is preceded by reports from the UN warning that the planet is on the way to suffering a warming of between 2.5 and 2.9ºC due to the increase in emissions of gases derived from the burning of coal, oil and gas (in activities linked to the use of energy, transport, agriculture...).
EU proposal
Avoid escape routes
The central debate is marked by the EU, which is in favor of adopting at COP28 an agreement in favor of a "progressive elimination of the production and consumption of energy from fossil fuels". He also wants this consumption to "reach its peak this decade" and that emissions peak in 2025 at the latest. If not, he does not see it as feasible to achieve the goal of 1.5ºC.
On the other hand, other blocs in the negotiation (China or India) prefer to talk about "reduction" of this fossil energy. In the conference a third way can open its way. It is the position of countries that accept the progressive elimination of fossil fuels, but with the exception of technologies whose emissions can be sequestered (which prevents gases from being released into the atmosphere). This position seeks the lifeline by invoking CO2 capture and storage, systems proven in thermals and other hydrocarbon installations that capture the gases before expelling them, burying them and neutralizing them, but with disputed effectiveness. The Arab Emirates will intensify its commitment to this formula with the support of the US. At this point, Valvanera Ulargui, director of the Spanish Climate Change Office, points out that "we cannot dedicate investments to technologies that have not proven to be a solution, that do not present a good cost-benefit balance and that do not serve to reduce emissions ".
Increase production
A contradictory trend
Stopping the warming of around 1.5º C (to prevent the most catastrophic effects of climate change) means having to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030 (compared to 2019). And, in addition, it is necessary to act in the medium term, which means pointing out the "way out" of fossil fuels towards the middle of the century. However, governments are planning an increase in fossil fuel extraction by 2030 that doubles the amount that would be consistent with the 1.5°C target, according to the report on the Production Gap of the Program of United Nations for the Environment. There is a trend towards an increase in global coal production until 2030 and oil and gas production until at least 2050. Recently, the Minister for the Ecological Transition, Teresa Ribera, said: "It must be established that no there must be new exploration and exploitation of fossil fuels, and in particular, of coal; and even less so if they don't have (carbon) capture systems to eliminate emissions." Environmental groups are calling for the end of fossil energy extraction to be before the middle of the century. Spain has prohibited these explorations by law.
Triple renewables by 2030
Agreement in effect
However, there is no agreement to set when emissions must reach their maximum peak and then decline. However, "achieving this peak is the only way not to exceed the 1.5ºC warming threshold in the coming years", recalls Marta Torres, researcher at the Institute of Sustainable Development and International Relations (Iddri) in Paris. On the other hand, the proposal of the supporting countries to triple the installed capacity of renewable energies by 2030 and double energy efficiency by then is gaining acceptance.
"Fossil fuels are the big problem, they need to be replaced by renewables. It's the moment of truth", says Gonzalo Sáenz de Miera, director of Iberdrola's climate change area, to this newspaper.
The summit will be overseen by Sultan Al-Jaber, director of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, the fourth largest oil and gas company in the world, which has raised a lot of criticism, which has been answered. "The fossil fuel industry must be part of the solution", said Simon Stiell, executive director of the Climate Change Convention to defend this seat, on Saturday.
Meanwhile, dozens of social entities are asking for a regime of incompatibilities to avoid the massive presence of the interests of large producing companies in the official delegations of the countries in these conferences.
Balance of the Paris Agreement
Review and relaunch the action
In Dubai, the typical tension will be repeated between countries that demand more gas reductions and others that ask for economic aid in return. But this year there will be no promises to present new national contributions or climate action plans to the UN. On the table is the challenge of agreeing on the first official global assessment of the progress made in implementing the Paris Agreement. We know the answer: not enough progress is being made in reducing emissions. But the review is an opportunity to relaunch action, as it involves the preliminary analysis before countries present the new climate action plans in 2025. "It is about applying a correction and adjustment mechanism to assess the action carried out and see how new actions can be taken", says Torres. Governments must present these plans every five years (with voluntary targets on gas reduction, but with a planned list of actions to be taken).
Financing in poor countries
And a consequent bank
The conference will have to assess the help of the rich world to developing countries on financing to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In 2021 the figure reached 89.6 billion dollars (public and private resources). The 100,000 million promised for 2020 were not met. But estimates indicate that this figure would have been exceeded in 2022, according to the OECD. "This funding is a drop in a sea of needs. The reform of the financial institutions of the World Bank and bilateral banks is increasingly important", says Torres (a matter that falls outside the scope of this conference). Various formulas are also proposed to increase this aid (extraordinary taxes on oil companies or taxes on flights...) and the demand for banks to divest from fossil fuels is growing.
Eliminate subsidies
An unfulfilled promise
The European Union wants to tighten previous agreements to “phase out inefficient subsidies” to fossil fuels and eliminate them by 2030. It is something that was already agreed in Glasgow (2021); however, these subsidies have continued to increase, according to the IMF, due to fuel subsidies and energy security needs after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
