Autumn, which will begin on September 23 at 8:50 a.m., peninsular time, is expected to be very warm and rainier than normal, which could help alleviate the meteorological drought that affects the Iberian Peninsula as a whole. This is the prediction of the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) after a few summer months that have made up the third warmest summer in the historical series behind the years 2022 and 2003, and in which climate change has accelerated in Spain.
Seasonal prediction models point to a high probability that the meteorological fall – between September 1 and November 30 – will be warmer than normal. And, in the same way, if a more extended prediction is taken into account, which covers the quarter made up of the months of October, November and December, “we are going towards a very warm quarter, with temperatures much higher than normal. ", highlights Rubén del Campo, spokesperson for the Aemet. The forecast is that there is a 50% to 70% chance that it will be warmer than normal across the country. “It is a very marked probability,” says the spokesperson.
The models also indicate that it could be rainier than normal, although in this case there are greater uncertainties. There is a 40% to 50% chance of it being a rainy quarter versus a 20% to 40% chance of it being dry. “Here we cannot get as wet because this is a more elusive parameter in our latitudes, because with one or two very rainy episodes the average for the entire season can already be reached,” adds the Aemet spokesperson.
This greater probability of a rainy autumn, with above-normal rainfall in most of Spain, would occur especially in the northwest of the Peninsula,” says Del Campo. If this were the case, it would be good news to stop the meteorological drought, which has already lasted a long time, since it began in December 2022 and has continued despite the summer rains.
Meanwhile, warming tests are taking place in Spain. The summer has been rich in episodes of extreme heat, as demonstrated by the four heat waves and 24 days under this situation of extreme temperatures in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands.
For Rubén del Campo, Aemet spokesperson, the most relevant thing is that “nine of the ten warmest summers since 1961 have occurred in the 21st century, and four of the five warmest have taken place since 2015,” he adds. Daily maximum temperatures remained on average 1.2°C above the normal value.
The 24 days under heat waves in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands may seem little when compared to last year, when there were 41; “But this year more than a quarter of the summer days we have been in an extreme situation due to high temperatures,” adds Del Campo. The average in the decade of the 80s, 90s and first decade of the 21st century was seven days with heat waves per year, with which this figure is multiplying by three.
At the Valencia airport, a maximum temperature of 46.8ºC was recorded on July 10, the highest recorded this summer in Spain and which broke the season record by more than 3ºC. “Traditionally, records have been broken by tenths or by one degree at most; but this year records have been broken that draw attention due to the wide margin recorded,” highlights Del Campo.
In the city of Malaga there were two “hellish” nights, a new name not yet consolidated referring to those nights in which they do not drop below 30ºC, one with a minimum temperature of 31.2ºC on July 20. And in one station in Tenerife it did not drop below 37ºC one night.
In the same way, the temperature of the coastal waters of Spain also registered its highest value between January and August since there are data. “From January to August, if we average the temperature of the coastal waters surrounding Spain, it has reached almost 19.5ºC, which is 0.5ºC higher than the previous warmest record, corresponding to 2020,” says Del Campo.
Warmer water is “fuel” for storms, which can leave more intense rainfall when the most suitable conditions occur. “This indicator is also showing us extreme values,” highlights the spokesperson.
If the meteorological behavior is analyzed in the period between January and August, the year 2023 ties with 2022 and 2020 as the warmest in the historical series, with an average temperature of 15.7ºC, which is 1.1ºC per year. above the normal average.
From 1961 to 2023, the average temperature in mainland Spain has increased by 1.6ºC.
