Job creation in the United States has the ability to withstand anything. After 20 months of intense work by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cool the economy with increases in interest rates and curb inflation, the US labor market created 336,000 jobs in September, well above what was expected (170,000).
This number is in line with the best months, above the average of 310,000 in the first quarter. It also means reaching the monthly average of the three years prior to the pandemic, when then-President Donald Trump used this data to talk about the best economy in the history of the United States. The achievement now goes to Joe Biden, who took the reins in the midst of the collapse due to the closure decreed to combat covid.
On the other hand, the unemployment rate remained at 3.8% when forecasts lowered it to 3.7%. This means that, despite the conservatives' criticism of the White House policy and surveys that reflect citizens' discontent with the progress of the economy, many more people went out to look for job opportunities because they considered that there were good conditions, while unemployment remains at historic lows. The workforce rose to 62.8%, still half a point below the pre-covid era.
Immediate rebound effect: the better, the worse. It is the conclusion that was drawn from Wall Street. The Dow Jones futures index fell 200 points (and was still falling) due to this good data on employment. This negative vision contrasts with the reconfirmation of the vitality of the labor market and the solidity of an economy that, according to analysts, will soon be attacked by a series of forces, above all by the increasing impact of the increasing cost of the conditions to achieve loans.
September is the 33rd consecutive month of expansion in occupations. Salaries grew by 0.2% compared to August and stand at 4.2% compared to September 2022. In addition to this powerful increase in jobs in September, the revisions of the previous two months are also upward. In August there were 227,000 jobs, 40,000 more than those reported at the time, while July stood at 236,000, compared to 157,000. Between the two months there were 119,000 more occupations than those reported.
These data, favorable for citizens, may increase the concern of the Fed governors in their fight against the increase in prices in the shopping basket. If at last month's meeting they agreed to another pause in rates, after eleven increases since March 2022, the strength of the labor market has the ability to influence the Reserve so that it does not wait any longer and raises the cost of money at the meeting November by certifying that its work against inflation is not yet finished.
There are experts, however, who warn against jumping to conclusions quickly. September is usually a month in which figures often present peculiarities due to seasonal adjustments, as teachers return to work and summer workers in leisure and hospitality leave their jobs.
But all these elements, others point out, were already calculated and, despite everything, such a high level of hiring was not expected. And reality seems to contradict the forecasters. From the perspective of the sectors, the leader in the boost was precisely leisure and hospitality (bars and restaurants) with 96,000 new positions. They are followed by government (73,000), health (41,000) and technical, professional and scientific services (29,000). On the negative side is the film and television industry, where there was a drop of 5,000 jobs, which has now reached 45,000 since May, when the writers' strike began. But this conflict was settled a few days ago, although the cast of the actors is pending. On the other hand, employees of the three large automobile companies in Detroit (Ford, General Motors and Stellantis) expanded their protest and affected tens of thousands of employees.
