Finally, Alberto Núñez Feijóo's PP has voted against the pension reform decree that José Luis Escrivá, the Minister of Immigration and Social Security, has agreed with the European Commission. This is yet another risky bet by the right-wing opposition, which claims that the public pension system is in danger. Several generations of Spaniards have grown up bombarded with it. But, go here that it is still valid and compared to the past, it provides better and increased benefits. Undoubtedly, the debate about its future is well present in society.
Although the revaluation according to inflation had already been approved in Congress, in November 2020, it was evident that the validity of this update was hanging by a thread if a formula was not found so that Social Security could accommodate its income to the increase in the pensioners payroll. To reconcile both expectations, more spending on pensions without increasing the deficit, should face the latest decree.
For this reason, in reality, the revaluation of pensions was voted again on Thursday in Congress, since it incorporated the endorsement of Brussels to the proposal to guarantee its future. And around the idea that it is necessary to establish a plan that clears up the unknowns of the future, the social consensus has taken shape over the years.
The PP has opposed it without clearly explaining why. Of course without putting on the table a proposal that is no longer better, simply an alternative. In the environment the suspicion that the popular consider excessive spending on pensions. Something very difficult to explain, even in many of its traditional territories, where pensions are the main income of a good number of households. The popular leaders seemed to expect that the brown would be swallowed by the Government of Pedro Sánchez. Trapped with such a delicate social issue in the Brussels gorge, to beat him up accusing him of being insolvent and endangering the model, if the pact with the Commission did not reach or Escrivá's plan was knocked down or, alternatively, calling him insensitive if he was forced to to propose some cut
But things have not been like that. Perhaps they believed the propaganda of their related media, for months predicting that there would be no community green light. Liked the Spanish government's plan more or less, Brussels could not simply despise it. Once Escrivá secured union support, the CEOE's rejection of Antonio Garamendi - this time yes, reflecting the sentiment of his territorials - could no longer be a lever to knock it down.
Despite the obvious signs that the pact with Europe was just around the corner, they persisted in not seeing it and denying it until it was consummated. To the point that the Commissioner for the Economy, Paolo Gentiloni, asked Feijóo for constructive criticism of Escrivá's proposal, which the Galician had called a patch.
Once the PP's rejection of the reform materialized, it remains to be seen how he argues it in a year marked precisely by the electoral calls. That the conservatives would align themselves with business organizations, complaining about a triple increase in prices, was predictable. But in the matter of pensions, many millions are affected.
The conservatives will have no choice but to take the debate to the field of taxes -their favorite- denouncing that the Socialists continue to come up with new instruments to punish the middle classes and the most qualified wage earners, those who see their contributions unstoppable. In other words, converting contributions into one more tax.
The first test will be Madrid, where the current president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, could expand her fiscal populism toolbox by manufacturing regional compensations, camouflaged under another name, to the rise in prices; at the expense of the rest of the communities. Another way of sucking in activity from other territories.
But beyond that, the PP must think about how to prevent its commitment against the reform from opening an electoral gap. There are 10 million contributory pensions. And the figure grows at a rate of 1% per year, that is, 100,000, which gives an idea of the number of citizens who are waiting year after year. Those who look at the figure of their future pension add up to millions more. Pensioners are the first electoral bloc in any developed country.
Sending them a confusing message, such as thinking about cuts, can bury any electoral campaign. Ask José María Aznar and his famous television debate with the socialist Felipe González for the 1993 elections, which he lost. And again in those of 1996, in which his victory, this time yes, was by a minimal advantage, which was attributed to his hesitations with pensions.
In the current discussion on the reform, the PP has shown that it does not believe Escrivá's forecasts, both on economic growth, on which job creation depends, and on demographic evolution, which define both the number of pensioners and that of future contributors. But that is not enough. The experts used by the popular, beginning with the banks, insurance companies and analysts, have been predicting the financial collapse of the system for decades; which obviously has never occurred.
It is possible that society is divided between those who see it as very dark and those who believe that the system is sustainable without major shocks. The electoral effect of the reform – its debate and the political positions of the parties – will depend on which of the two sides is the majority.
In the first case, the Government of Sánchez and Yolanda Díaz, the second vice president and Minister of Labor, will be the main beneficiaries and the reform will give it air in the vote count, while it will penalize the PP. In the second scenario, Feijóo can receive help from society's fear of collapse, but for this he will have to put a lot of fear into the electoral campaign.
