Spain will grow somewhat more than initially expected this year. This Monday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) improved its growth forecast for the country by one tenth, to 1.5%. The figure, after the 2.5% advance in 2023, is in line with that recently presented by the IMF and far improves that of the eurozone and other powers in the area.
Inflation, in turn, will moderate. It will fall from 3.4% in 2023 to 3.3% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025. This year's figure cuts four tenths on the previous forecast, although it will rise by 2025.
Spain will maintain a stronger push than the rest of the large European countries, which are more stagnant, thanks to a final stretch of 2023 that has surprised. In 2025 it would grow 2%. It will be the one that grows the most this year and the next among those analyzed. In fact, the eurozone will grow 0.6%, worse than the 0.9% forecast made in November and only one tenth better than last year. By 2025 the advance would be 1.3%. In both cases below the GDP increase expected for the US (2.1% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025).
The Old Continent remains heavily burdened by the energy shock that already began before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and by the rise in rates. In the rest of the European references, Germany will rise by 0.3%, France by 0.6% and Italy by 0.7%.
China remains bogged down by the real estate crisis, which the authorities are trying to counteract with waves of stimulus. His perception of the Asian giant maintains the GDP increase of 4.7% for this 2024, after 5.2% last year, and 4.2% in 2025.
At a global level there is a little more optimism: growth of 2.9% is expected this year, two tenths above the previous projection, and next year's growth remains at 3%. In any case, the Paris-based institution is closely observing the Red Sea, the central point of world trade with around 12% of traffic, which can increase inflation by four tenths in a year.
The OECD considers that central banks have to maintain a prudent monetary policy to ensure that inflationary pressures have been contained on a lasting basis. And although there is room to lower interest rates when that happens, he warns that they will remain high for some time.
