The Fiscal Authority (AIReF) has raised the public deficit forecast to 4.2% of GDP at the end of the year. The Government's decision to approve new spending measures at the end of last year, such as the reduction in VAT on food or the 200-euro check, as well as the extension of others to deal with the inflation crisis, has led the body independent to revise nine tenths upwards the initial forecast. In other words, in a scenario of suspension of fiscal rules, the gap between income and expenses will deviate three tenths above the reference rate.
AIReF calculates, in a report on the fiscal scenario of public administrations released this Wednesday, that the decree of anti-inflation measures that came into force on January 1 will have a budgetary impact of 12,000 million. Specifically, the decrease in collection due to tax measures will be, always according to the tax authority, 6,083 million, and the spending measures, led mainly by direct aid to different groups, will cost 7,931 million. Something more than 14,000 million, in short.
Of the aforementioned 4.2% deficit, 3.5% corresponds to the central administration, 0.6% to Social Security, 0.3% to the autonomous communities and 0.2% to local corporations.
Catalonia will be one of the four autonomous communities that end 2023 with a deficit of more than 0.3% of GDP, AIReF points out. The Valencian Community, Murcia and Castilla-La Mancha will also be in this group. The rest of the regions will end the year with a gap between income and expenses close to or above the reference rate.
The body chaired by Cristina Herrero maintains the estimate of economic growth at 1.6% of GDP. In other words, it does not revise the figure, essentially due to the deterioration in the financing forecasts. Despite the improvement in the labor market or tax collection, among other indicators, monetary policy, with the rise in interest rates, will have a direct impact on the national economy, predicts AIReF.
The AIReF forecast suggests that the debt to GDP ratio will fall by 2.6 points, to end the year at 112.4%, in line with the forecasts of the European Commission and the IMF.
