The strategic knots of world transport are endangered by the weather. And the global economy could literally drown. The global projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate that the number of ports exposed to floods of more than one meter between 2030 and 2080 will increase by 80%.
According to a report published by Marsh (Enabling a climate resilient Suez Canal), the future of some of the world's most important shipping lanes – including the Suez and Panama Canals and other port and terminal infrastructure – may be affected by the risks associated with the climate change. And this could have implications for regional economies, global food security and supply chains in the medium and long term.
For example, sea level rise could jeopardize the integrity of the infrastructure along the Suez Canal due to the potential interruption of loading and unloading and the movement of merchandise. It is estimated that between 10% and 12% of trade passes through this channel and around 30% of containers use this route.
Extreme heat can also take its toll on ports. Compared to today, extreme heat events reaching 45°C will double by 2050 and are likely to increase sevenfold by 2100.
From lost productivity to changes in sea salinity and density, which affect the efficiency of engine cooling, for the logistics industry, they mean more costs and more delays. Nick Faull, director of climate risk and sustainability at Marsh, comments that “the Suez and Panama canals, the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab-el-Mandeb and the Strait of Malacca represent a significant source of national revenue for their countries.
Weather-related events, such as the strong winds that played a role in the Ever Given running aground in 2021, could harm its long-term viability.” For his part, Rohan Hamden, CEO of XDI, explains: "We are in a situation where the escalation of extreme weather events resulting from climate change is assured."
