Nothing is ever still, except the dead. And not even them, because the dead also dissolve into ashes. Politics, which is a projection of life, works with this same logic: whoever breathes, changes and adapts to circumstances; He who does not evolve remains stagnant. The political scenario in the South of Spain on the eve of the second investiture debate – now with Pedro Sánchez as a candidate – indicates that a hypothetical electoral repetition, in the event of the failure of the socialist candidate, would not guarantee Feijóo in Andalusia the freedom that needs to overcome the electoral ceiling of 23J.
Andalusia continues to be a territory dominated by the right, but the formal hegemony established in the middle of last year, with Moreno Bonilla's absolute victory in the last regional elections, has begun to recede. In regional terms it is not relevant because there are still three years left in the legislature, but from a national perspective this data seems to predict that the PP is condemned, in the short and medium term, to try to find a complementary partner that is not politically incompatible with the ultramontanes of Vox.
That white blackbird, at the moment, does not exist, no matter how much Genoa tries to plant for the near future with the PNV depending on how the Basque elections go. In Andalusia, which is the largest autonomous community that has escaped the coalition governments between PP and Vox, predominant in the rest of Spain, the right is declining. But he does it slowly.
Any technical extrapolation of the results of the last general elections in the South has raised doubts, for at least two months, about whether the president of the Junta still maintains his historic victory intact, although he can legally keep it until 2026. The Quirinale has wanted to settle this disturbing debate by making public an official survey – a barometer of public opinion carried out quarterly by Centra, an equivalent to the CIS, controlled by the Junta – which maintains that the majority obtained fifteen months ago still survives.
As it is a partial source, it is advisable to maintain a certain caution in the face of this statement, which, in any case, does not call into question that Moreno Bonilla's political wear and tear is advancing, even if it is in very slow motion. According to these data, the PP is currently at its lowest point since 19J, although the distance that separates it from the socialists – 16 points – is still more than notable. The general trend recorded in this survey, in any case, indicates that the political ascendancy of the Andalusian president is not infinite. He has a roof.
The Moreno tide, to put it in nautical terms, recedes, although it has more than enough beach to not feel excessive concern. The sea, like politics, is a treacherous creature. What seems circumstantial or temporary today can degenerate into a storm tomorrow. San Telmo has two certainties in its roadmap. First: although the wear and tear of the president of the Board is slight, the socialists no longer continue digging into their own decadence.
Since 19J, the PSOE has maintained an electoral base that, although it has dropped at some point, remains stable and brings together a quarter of the voters. His growth is insignificant and he has no option to govern again in Andalusia, but, even in this compromised situation, he has not lost his ability to help shore up the edifice of Sanchismo. The second certainty has to do with the degree of hostility of the opposition.
The Sumar experiment, despite its undoubted internal fragility, has brought together almost the entire vote to the left of the socialists and would gain up to five more points if it ran with a single list. It is not a sufficient increase to alert the Quirinale, but it is an indication that, compared to a year ago, the atomization of the left in Andalusia, one of the factors that explained the political hegemony of San Telmo, has sealed. For now.
Moreno Bonilla is not obliged to make concessions to Vox – whose influence is registering a slight decline – but it is not in his best interest to break bridges or show hostility towards Abascal's party. If the left advanced thanks to a recovery of the PSOE, in the event of a successful investiture, the PP would need to keep Vox's electoral quota latent to create an alternative defense shield. Since 19J, the bloc of the two right-wing parties has fallen by 3.4%, while the sum of all the left-wing parties (including Adelante Andalucía, which always participates alone) has grown almost six more points. Almost double.
Sumar, thanks to the electoral concentration, could become, according to the Junta's survey, the third political force in the South of Spain, relegating Vox to last position. The chronic instability of the southern left and the current stagnation of the PSOE, which is difficult to reverse after the loss of its municipal and provincial seats in the 28M elections, draw a horizon of certain stability for the Quirinale.
In the same way, they confirm that the Andalusian PP no longer has such a favorable horizon to continue growing, although it will not have problems governing. This issue, in the event of turbulence in Genoa, aborted after Feijóo's investiture, which was unsuccessful but not sterile in internal terms, will have to be resolved, sooner or later, by the president of the Board.
Moreno Bonilla has not appointed a successor nor does he have a dolphin within his government. The entire political heritage of the right in Andalusia depends on his figure. So far, the presidential cult has been successful for the interests of the PP. The problem is that, in the long term, it also shows a weakness. All empires that depend excessively on the charisma of one person fall if the wind changes direction. All Caesars have an Achilles heel.
