The global average temperature could occasionally cross the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius next year, the British Meteorological Office said this Friday, which would mean a new climate record that should raise alarm at the COP28 summit being held these days. days in Dubai.
The same organization confirmed what numerous organizations have already confirmed in recent weeks, that 2023 has been the warmest year since records began and that, 2024 will probably be even hotter. The British office's forecast is that the average global temperature by 2024 will be between 1.34°C and 1.58°C above the average for the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900.
The figure 1.5ºC is the limit temperature that was set by the Paris Agreement to keep global warming at bay, and the forecast is that in the coming years, until 2030, it will be exceeded, not just occasionally as it has already done. It happened this 2023 and may happen in 2024, if not continuously, which will set off all the alarms.
Therefore, reaching the level of 1.5°C in a single year does not mean that the world crosses the threshold of long-term average warming, but this forecast for 2024 gives more arguments to those who, within the framework of COP28 , demand urgent actions to stop emissions that warm the climate. "The forecast is in line with the current global warming trend of 0.2°C per decade, and is driven by a major El Niño event," said Nick Dunstone of the Met Office.
"Therefore, we expect two new consecutive years of record global temperatures and, for the first time, we are forecasting a reasonable probability that one year will temporarily exceed 1.5 ° C... although it is important to recognize that a temporary exceedance of 1 .5 °C will not mean a breach of the Paris Agreement," he added.
The World Meteorological Organization said last month that warming of around 1.4°C above pre-industrial records could be achieved this year and that extreme weather conditions and record ice loss have given a glimpse of what a warming climate could look like. long-term violation of the limit. In November, a team of scientists, including those from NASA and Columbia University, said the world could cross the 1.5°C threshold within this decade.
Most emissions models from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that the world could exceed 1.5°C during the 2030s.
