The OECD aligns itself with the AIReF and warns that the pension reform will increase the deficit

The OECD does not have the balance with the pension system in Spain in the future and aligns itself with the AIReF calculations.

Oliver Thansan
Oliver Thansan
12 December 2023 Tuesday 15:27
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The OECD aligns itself with the AIReF and warns that the pension reform will increase the deficit

The OECD does not have the balance with the pension system in Spain in the future and aligns itself with the AIReF calculations. The organization - in the biannual report published today on pensions in different countries - highlights that "the additional income only partially covers the growing expenses derived mainly from the reintroduction of price indexation" and the deficit is expected to grow by 1.1 % of GDP in 2050.

The OECD does not assess the suitability of the system designed by the Government of Pedro Sánchez in the previous legislature but rather lists the corresponding data in each country. In its report on public pensions published this Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) details that the increase in income will be equivalent to 1.3% of GDP while expenses will increase by 2.4%. Hence, the greater growth in income compared to expenses generates a gap or deficit of the aforementioned 1.1%.

Among the measures to increase collection indicated by the OECD, the most notable are the increase in the maximum contribution bases at a rate higher than inflation, the limitation of the increase in the maximum pension, the changes in the contributions of the self-employed, the "quota of solidarity" that will pay the highest salaries and the increase of the "intergenerational solidarity mechanism", especially by companies.

Pension spending in Spain, which currently represents 12.3% of the gross domestic product (GDP), is already clearly above the OECD average (8.9%), and even more so in the European Union (8.5%), although there are some European countries that are much higher, in particular France (14.8%) and Italy (15.4%). The European Commission's projections anticipate that this spending in Spain will increase between now and 2050, but moderately, up to 13.2% in 2045, although these future estimates do not take into account all the approved reforms.

The so-called replacement rate, which measures the pension level in relation to the gross salary during active life for workers who enter the labor market at age 22 and cover the contribution period, will be 80.4% in Spain, compared to the 50.7% average in the OECD.

Only one country in the organization, Greece, has a more generous replacement rate in relative terms, with a pension equivalent to 80.8% of gross salary. The percentages are notably lower in France (57.6%), Germany (43.9%), the United Kingdom (41.9%) or the United States (39.1%).

The reforms planned in the countries of the organization will increase the average retirement age for those who cover the full retirement period if they started working at age 22 from 64.4 years to 66.3. In the case of Spain, there are 65 and it is not going to change.

It must be taken into account that currently the age at which Spaniards retire (in which factors such as early retirement or other forms of early retirement weigh in) is much lower, 62 years for men and 61.8 for women, compared to an average of 64.4 in the OECD.