In the last two years, the Spanish economy has grown more than previously estimated. It was a very repeated hypothesis that has now been confirmed with the review published this morning by the INE.
The review assumes that Spain has grown 1.3% more than expected so far in the 2020-2022 period. Specifically, it represents a growth of 6.4% in 2021, that is, nine tenths more than calculated so far, and 5.8% in 2022, three tenths more. In addition, the GDP for 2020 is also modified by one tenth upwards, although the fall is still brutal, 11.2%.
In this way, the Spanish economy managed to recover its pre-pandemic level sooner than expected. It already achieved it last year and not in the first quarter of this year as was calculated until now. The story of the reaction of the Spanish economy to the pandemic therefore changes. Spain suffers an enormous fall in 2020, the worst of the large European economies, but what is different is its capacity to react, which has been superior, already managing to recover pre-pandemic levels last year.
The growth in 2021 and 2022 was greater than expected thanks to the boost in private consumption and external demand, which worked better than had been estimated so far. In 2021, the upward revision of private consumption, public spending and investment stands out, while the following year, in 2022, there is a greater contribution from external demand and also from private consumption (from 4.4% to 4.7%). %) and public spending (from -0.7% to -0.2%).
"The review is much higher than usual, but it is logical and reasonable given the times we have gone through, during the pandemic many partial indicators have become distorted and have begun to make noise. As the situation normalizes, they will be more precise," says Manuel Hidalgo, professor at the Pablo de Olavide University.
For the Ministry of Economy, the data "also reflect the quality of the growth of the Spanish economy, which has especially benefited families, increasing the weight of salaries on GDP by more than one point."
The first alert that there could be a significant correction in the Spanish GDP in 2022 came on September 1 with the one made by the United Kingdom, almost two points up in 2021, going from a fall of 1.2% to a growth of 0.6%. It was a piece of information that raised expectations about the exercise carried out today by the INE, customary every September, in which, with more complete data, the provisional calculations carried out in March are reviewed. Revisions are common, although corrections are usually minor.
In the current context, the difficulty of the statistical models commonly used to accurately calibrate reality after the pandemic also influences. The impact of the war in Ukraine and the tax changes carried out can also be added to explain a more in-depth review than usual.
In September of last year, the INE also corrected the growth data from previous years, increasing those of 2021 by four tenths, up to 5.5%, but instead, worsening those of 2020, taking that historical drop to 11. 3%.
