Apparently remote characters, from a tribal country, always armed, frequently divided, a legendary country, cradle of coffee and the Queen of Sheba and at the same time backyard of Saudi Arabia, the Houthis of Yemen have achieved unprecedented notoriety by putting merchant transit through the Red Sea in check. Their flag, the defense of the – distant for them – Palestinian people in the face of the – also unprecedented – destruction of Gaza by the Israeli army. Ansarulah, the party-militia that brings them together, founded by the brothers Hussein and Abdul Malik al Huthi (hence the name Houthis), however, has other motivations.
The Houthis, wielding Kalashnikovs and wearing flip-flops, managed to control about two-thirds of the country, including the capital, Sanaa, in 2014, taking advantage of the political chaos and with a mix of managing tribal relations and offensive force, with which they expelled Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula of much of the territory. Saudi Arabia, leading a modest Arab coalition, but with the help of the American and British military, has tried to defeat them since 2015.
A new round of peace negotiations was about to succeed, apparently within a year, in December. The Houthis want to be recognized as the dominant power in Yemen (they control 70%-80% of the population), and Saudi Arabia sees the constant harassment of Houthi drones and missiles over its territory as a serious problem for Prince Mohammed's big projects. bin Salman. The rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, managed by China, was supposed to make things easier, with Tehran promising to give up the support it has given to the Houthis for years. But Gaza has changed everything, and the Houthis have become the spearhead of the so-called Resistance axis against Israel sponsored by Tehran.
If, as some believe, the Lebanese Hizbullah constitutes the first line of the Resistance axis, this time it does not seem so. The statements of its leader, Hasan Nasrallah, are becoming less and less worthy of attention and the front in southern Lebanon remains – at least until now – in low intensity. It is possible, some believe, that the Houthis have prevented Israel from expanding the war to Lebanon. With the help of Hizbullah – which has supported the Houthis in Yemen for years – and Iranian advisors, who would be identifying and selecting the ships to be attacked in the Red Sea, the Houthis are involved in a great change of scenery in the great Middle East conflict, regardless of whether it was all Iran's idea or their own, which for a reason has been carrying out this type of practice for a long time – attacks and hijacking of ships – and confronting the US Navy.
Using social networks like never before, evoking human rights conventions or directly challenging the European Union, the Houthis are gaining prestige in the Arab world, and even in general among defenders and sympathizers of the Palestinian cause. But observers and specialists in Yemen agree that this prestige and notoriety will be used by the Houthis to achieve an advantageous peace agreement with Saudi Arabia. The key for them is to negotiate with the Saudis independently of other Yemeni factions, the Government or the southern secessionists supported by the Emirates, a country friendly to Israel, by the way, and the other regional power in the otherwise complex Yemeni equation. The Saudis and Emiratis, however, prefer to believe that the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea only have to do with Gaza; In this way, they swim and store their clothes. Saudi Arabia, which still officially supports the Palestinians, cannot appear as the enemy of the Houthis.
On the other hand, no one wants an escalation. Thus, Arab countries show their “concern” about the Houthi attacks on ships and the US response by bombing Yemen. And of course they are not joining the North American naval operation Guardian of Prosperity, although Bahrain – a subsidiary country of Saudi Arabia – is serving as a base. Only Oman – a country that has traditionally been a mediator with Iran – has spoken out against Western attacks. The European Union, which is preparing its own naval operation, does not think in terms of combat, while everyone has in mind that the Houthis were able to resist nine years of war with Saudi Arabia and its Arab and Western allies, even if it was at the cost of the starvation of the population and the destruction of civil infrastructure. In addition, the traffic of weapons and material supplied by Iran has not stopped flowing to the Houthis; by land, thanks to corruption in the territory supposedly controlled by the internationally recognized Yemeni government, and by sea, thanks to the Somalis. It should be remembered that Somali piracy – a product of foreign overfishing and the Western dumping of toxic waste on its coasts – is still active. The Houthis can keep their pulse for quite some time.
But this is not the first time that the US has launched a campaign against the Houthis (Obama, in 2016, for example) nor is the current one being bloody. The United States – and President Joe Biden himself – have recognized that the bombings of missile sites and factories have so far been of little (or nothing) use. These would be limited attacks. Although, according to the Middle East Eye portal, which cites Iranian sources, Washington notified Tehran in advance of the attacks through Saudi Arabia, which would be acting as a communication channel.
If the Houthis continue to be considered allies of Iran, but do not feel obliged to follow its orders (the axis of the Resistance, which also includes Hizbullah, Hamas and Iraqi and Syrian Shiite militias, is based on the autonomy of its members ), everything indicates that it would be more interesting for the US not to push too hard and facilitate an agreement between Ansarulah and Saudi Arabia. Otherwise, an escalation would give even greater dimension to Gaza, which serves as a pretext for everyone.
