“Yes, Putin will attack the Baltic states if he succeeds in defeating Ukraine. His imperial plans have been clear and that is why I believe Ukraine is fighting our war. It is the war of Europe. That is why we must strengthen it to the fullest."
The one who expresses himself in this forceful way is Maximilian Terhalle, lieutenant colonel in the German Army Reserve, professor at the London School of Economics, prominent member of the Kiel Institute for Security Policy. Although he is not the only one.
The same is believed by the former right-hand man of the –influential in the Kremlin– Patriarch of Moscow, Father Cyril Hovorun, archimandrite. He even considers the use of nuclear weapons possible.
Europe's eastern flank, moreover, has little doubt of the danger. The rest of the EU some more. But there are already movements. Finland will be in NATO. And Sweden. Who more who less arms Ukraine. And everyone is waiting for events, although today the Russian armed forces on the border with the EU are "incomparably weaker than a few months ago and in several points they hardly even exist," explains David Batashvili, senior researcher at the Georgian Rondeli Foundation and La Vanguardia. author of a detailed map of its military bases.
Because although "now almost all ground forces are deployed in Ukraine or near its border," he continues, another issue is that in the Moscow-West tension, the advanced Russian position in the Kaliningrad or Murmansk oblasts is still a threat. “strategic” and “important”.
And it is precisely here, especially in the enclave of Kaliningrad, in this Russian territory surrounded by community borders, that for days, the breath has been held. The Lithuanian government blocks it by applying the sanctions approved and imposed by the EU. Moscow says its response "will not be just diplomatic." It can be a point and apart.
"We do not want a ceasefire in Ukraine and proposing it is the same as doing it with Adolf Hitler in 1942. You have to tell Putin: you have nuclear weapons, so do we!"
Thus spoke, a month ago, the Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks in La Vanguardia. Weeks later, just recently, Russia tested its Sarmat, a nuclear-capable missile, and at the same time summoned the EU ambassador to warn him of the harsh consequences of the Lithuanian blockade of Kaliningrad.
The escalation continues. And in this, although Russian troops have declined in the Caucasus, Central Asia, Siberia or the Far East, the "exception" continues to be Kaliningrad and northern Europe.
Sources from the Spanish Army confirm this to this newspaper:
“The Russian Army has over a million troops and at the beginning of the invasion it used about 150,000. Then he took soda units but it is not accurate to say that he has most of them in the Ukraine. In its naval capacity, moreover, the war does not imply any change. The participating ships are all from the Black Sea fleet. The Baltic or Arctic continue in their usual scenarios and are relevant. The air force is perhaps the biggest mystery for being unable to control Ukrainian airspace, but strategic platforms like long-range bombers still remain."
Manuel Morato, retired artillery colonel, former Spanish Defense Attaché for Russia and Ukraine between 2004 and 2008, details in turn that "all of us who have lived through the last years of Russia after the USSR recognize that since 2000 its Army it has improved. Much. NATO greatly exceeds its military capacity but another thing is the risks involved in dealing with Russia. For example, if it uses tactical nuclear weapons, and even when it was weaker, they pointed out to us that they could use it as part of asymmetric warfare, to strike with fewer means.
“Wars, until they are over, are very dangerous and only minor events can change forecasts, including human errors here. That is why this war should stop”, concludes Colonel Morato.
Because Russia may face a missile supply shortage problem after launching thousands in Ukraine according to the British Defense Ministry. But as Lucie Béraud-Sudreau, its expert on military spending, details from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), while the West reduced military spending, especially after the 2008 crisis, Russian spending grew, with only one decline in in 2017 and 2018 due to the lack of resources due to Western sanctions due to the occupation of Crimea and the low prices of raw materials.
“Russia's military spending remained relatively high in 2021, at 4.1% of its GDP, among the 15 highest in the world. In addition, in its transparency, if before the war it was of a reasonably good level and budget documents were accessible, it is not possible to say to what extent Russia's military spending was devoted to arms acquisition compared to other areas. expense keys. The last time Russia reported to the UN, it said it was about 25%," says Béraud-Sudreau.
“In Ukraine it has been proven that there is a technological gap between Russia and the West. The Su-57 was intended to match the US F-35 in capabilities, but after more than a decade of development there are no more than ten in service. And the T-4 Armata main battle tank has only been seen in public at parades. But Russia, probably being aware of this, has boosted investment in advanced capabilities such as new ballistic missiles, or hypersonic weapons, a field in which it is ahead of the West”, says a senior Spanish official, anonymously.
The threat already sees repercussions. The last one in Madrid, and for the summit of the Atlantic Alliance, just hours ago: NATO affirms that it will mobilize more than 300,000 soldiers to dissuade Putin from attacking an allied country.
Another advanced her in her conversation with La Vanguardia, again, the Latvian Pabriks: “I trust the US because it has military capacity. But not from Europe. Although Latvia is already a member of the EU and all because this question is repeated and repeated in the area: would all the EU Member States consider an attack on Eastern Europe as an attack on all of them and would they defend it as indicated in the article 42.7 of the EU treaty?
-“Whether the Germans or Spaniards will fight for the Poles when Putin invades the eastern flank and uses a tactical weapon beforehand? My opinion is yes, as long as the US is not tied down by a war in East Asia,” Terhalle replies even more precisely.
That is why it is insisted from all spheres that the end of the war in Ukraine has yet to be written. That it can last for years and that it is intuited that in all that time Eastern Europe will hold its breath. It is at the next point where the clash between East and West that has brought the war to Ukraine resonates; where a "historical psychosis", according to others, conditions. And when the strategy in the 'grey zone' – hybrid threats such as cyber attacks, disinformation, etc., a threshold below the armed clash – they are expected to continue.
“Here after all it is not about institutions but about geography”, concludes Terhalle.
