The decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain official rates at 4.5% is acting as a balm for the Euribor, which this month has abandoned the 4% threshold it reached in June by falling to 3.688% - in the absence of data to close the month. This is the lowest monthly average value recorded since March and the largest drop since February 2009.
This unprecedented drop in more than a decade confirms the change in trend of this indicator since it returned to positive levels in the spring of 2022. In addition, it is encouraging news for mortgage holders who have since seen their loan payments decrease. They shot. In fact, this latest decline will begin to be noticed by those to whom a semiannual review is applied.
If this evolution continues, the Euribor could even be below its current level, since it has reached several daily values around 3.5%. However, we should not be carried away by optimism, as warned by mortgage advisor Simone Colombelli, director of Mortgages at iAhorro, who considers that "most likely" it will remain around 3% for many months before continuing. his fall. He admits, however, that "this drastic drop" has broken the forecasts, although there may still be some rebound.
The downward evolution of the Euribor will be noticed by consumers who have their mortgage reviewed this month. And, specifically, those who have their loan reviewed every six months. For example, whoever took out a variable mortgage of 150,000 euros for 30 years in December 2021, with a differential of 0.99% Euribor, has seen his mortgage increase in June to 789 euros, from the initial 448 euros. However, thanks to the collapse of the Euribor this December, the fee will now be 762 euros (about 27 euros less).
However, mortgage holders with an annual review of their loan will still have to wait a few more months to notice the change in the index's trend. The reason is that in December 2022 it closed at a lower value than the current value, at 3.018%. Despite this, the fees will increase less than in the previous review. Thus, a consumer who contracts a mortgage loan with the same conditions described above but with an annual review of the payment will now pay 55 euros more per month, from 707 to 762 euros.
If this downward trend continues, "the savings can materialize as early as February or March, and will be more intense as the year progresses, especially in the months of July and September, when the Euribor reached 4.19%" , they predict from the Association of Financial Users (Asufin). In this sense, they predict that the indicator will gradually decline to 3%, a level it would reach in mid-2024 to continue falling to 2.6% at the end of the year.
