The Spanish economy has surprised with a better-than-expected end to the year, an acceleration in the last quarter that has placed the increase in GDP in 2023 at 2.5%, one tenth above the forecast maintained by the Government. In the last three months, the economy has grown 0.6%, two tenths more than in the previous quarter, when forecasts rather pointed towards a moderation in the pace.
In this way, according to the advance GDP data published this morning by the INE, the year began with two first quarters growing by 0.5%, a third by 0.4% and finally, the last, by 0.6%. .
This confirms that the Spanish economy continues to grow much more than the European economy, despite a turbulent international context.
In this context, private consumption is confirmed as the support of the Spanish economy in the last year, and on the other hand, with investment, as the darkest point. The strength of consumption is based on employment and salaries, which have allowed households to maintain their purchasing power. This week's EPA has shown spectacular data, the creation of 873,000 new jobs last year, and in addition, salaries have increased at the same level as inflation. If the average inflation in 2023 was 3.5%, the increase in agreement salaries applied to last year was 3.46%.
Specifically, of the 2.5 points of growth in 2023, one point is due to private consumption, 0.8 points to public consumption, which maintains very high levels, and another 0.8 points to external demand. On the other hand, the investment subtracts. "The bad thing about this year, the worrying thing, the negative thing, and that does not change course in the fourth quarter is the investment," says María Jesús Fernández, from Funcas.
In reality, the 0.6% growth of the last quarter has surprised everyone, but its composition is not so positive. There appears to be an increase in government consumption of 1.4% while that of households remains at 0.3% and, furthermore, a black point, with a 2% drop in investment. Fall for two consecutive quarters. And this despite European funds intended to boost investment.
The Ministry of Economy also highlights the positive evolution of exports based on the productivity of companies. Data that, for the Minister of Economy, Carlos Body, places Spain “at an advantageous starting point to meet our 2% growth objectives in 2024.” He also highlights that it is being demonstrated “that it is possible to combine economic growth, job creation and measures aimed at social protection and well-being of citizens, households and companies.”
On the other hand, in the last quarter exports picked up. After two negative semesters, when the economic anemia of our European neighbors was paying off, exports increased by 2.9% in the last phase of the year.
In this way, Corpo maintains the forecast of growing 2% this year, a percentage that is clearly above the forecasts of the different economic organizations, which until now established it at around 1.5%.
