The Center for Sociological Research (CIS) gives this Thursday a symbolic kick-off to the campaign that will begin at midnight for the elections to the Andalusian Parliament on June 19 by publishing the results of its first pre-election survey for those elections this noon.
The CIS survey for 19-J will be published three days after the one prepared by the Andalusian Studies Center Foundation (Centra), the CIS dependent on the Board, which was published last Monday, May 30, and which left the PP candidate, Juanma Moreno, only six seats away from the absolute majority set in the Andalusian Chamber at 55 deputies and with more seats than the entire left together.
Specifically, the Centra predicted a clear victory for the PP-A with a range of 47-49 seats and 39.2% of votes, 15 points more than the PSOE-A, which would be the second force with 31-32 deputies. Vox, according to the Centra, would be in third place by concentrating 17.3% of the votes, which would translate into 21-23 deputies.
For its part, Ciudadanos would be on the verge of extinction by achieving only between 1 and 2 seats. The left-wing confluence Por Andalucía would get 6.6% of the vote, which, translated into seats, would represent 5 seats, while Adelante Podemos, led by Teresa Rodríguez, would get 3.6% of the electoral vote and one seat.
Surveys published on Monday and Sunday of 40db for El País and Sigma Dos for El Mundo supported the majority support for Moreno Bonilla with very similar results, which gave Moreno a clear victory and that in all cases exceeded the joint figures of all the left formations.
Before the previous Andalusian elections of December 2, 2018, the CIS predicted in its pre-election survey, also published the day before the start of the campaign, a victory for the PSOE-A with 37.41 percent of the votes and between 45 and 47 seats. Behind the Socialists, at a distance of more than 18 points, the CIS study predicted a triple tie for seats between the confluence Adelante Andalucía -which then included Podemos, IU, Primavera Andaluza and Izquierda Andalucista-, the PP-A and Citizens (Cs), each of which would achieve at least 20 deputies and a maximum of 22.
However, in the appointment with the polls on December 2, 2018, the PSOE-A ended up imposing, but with a lower result both in seats and in percentage of votes compared to what the CIS predicted, since it was left with 33 deputies and 27.9% of the votes.
Behind was the PP-A, with 26 seats and 20.7% of the votes that helped it to access the Presidency of the Board thanks to a government pact with Ciudadanos (Cs), which was third force -with 21 parliamentarians and 18.3% of votes-, and the support of Vox -the fifth party with the most votes with 11% of votes and 12 seats- for the investiture of the 'popular' candidate, Juanma Moreno.
