All private polls give the PP victory in general elections and after the clear victory of Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party in the regional and municipal elections on May 28, that trend has increased. But the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) still resists placing the popular president ahead of the chief executive, Pedro Sánchez, something he only did in his July barometer shortly after Feijóo took the reins of the main opposition party , at the height of what came to be called the “Feijóo effect”.
This Friday the polling agency led by the socialist José Félix Tezanos publishes its barometer for June (1:00 p.m.), whose field work was carried out between May 31 and June 7, and which could provide news regarding the previous surveys of the Public institute. The poll is especially relevant this month due to the call for general elections for July 23 carried out by Sánchez after the defeat of the PSOE on 28-M and especially after the collapse of Podemos, circumstances that may have a transfer in the work of the CIS.
The last barometer of the organization, published on May 17, already narrowed the distance that Sánchez maintained over Feijóo to only 1.9 points when in April it was more than 4 points. Specifically, the CIS gave a vote estimate for the PSOE of 29.1%, while the PP was placed at a vote estimate of 27.2%.
The same poll raised the Sumar electoral platform of the second vice president of the Government, Yolanda Díaz, to third position with an estimated vote of 12.3% of the votes and left Podemos in fourth position with an estimated vote of 6, 1%. Given that Podemos signed the incorporation in Sumar reluctantly last Friday, June 9, already outside the period in which the interviews were carried out with the respondents, it is foreseeable that today's poll will once again separate the attribution of votes for the two formations to the left of the PSOE. In any case, it may reflect the tension maintained the previous days between Ione Belarra's party and the rest of the formations that had already expressed their support for Sumar.
Another aspect to assess from the June barometer will be the electoral performance that Vox can derive from the fact that it will be necessary, to some extent or another, to form different regional governments with the PP (Valencian Community, Aragon, Extremadura, the Balearic Islands or Murcia) and in a hundred long town halls. In the May survey, Santiago Abascal's party lost third position and half a point compared to April to stand at 10.6% of the estimated vote.
The June barometer should not include Ciudadanos since on May 30 the orange party already announced that it would not run in the general elections. In the previous poll, the CIS granted the liberal party 2.8% of the votes, a few points now could end up tipping the balance in favor of Feijóo.
It will also be interesting to take a look at how the estimate made by the CIS for the strictly Catalan and Basque obedience parties remains after the municipal elections in which the ruling party, particularly Esquerra but also the PNV, suffered the demobilization of their electorate , while Junts, with the victory in Barcelona, or Bildu, with very good results in Euskadi and Navarra, emerged unscathed from the elections. The May poll estimated 2.4% of the vote for the Republicans and 1.2% for the Post-Convergers, both 1.2 points below the 2019 results.
We will also see if the June barometer maintains the valuations of the main leaders in the usual order of recent months. That is, Yolanda Díaz in the lead (4.79 average score in May), Sánchez in second position (4.39) and Feijóo in third (4.11).
