The Institute of Economic Studies (IEE) predicts that next year the economy will grow only 1.5% and that the public deficit will be 3.8%, in both cases above the Government's calculations. The CEOE think tank describes this growth as “very modest”, especially coming from the 2.3% with which it is expected to close this year, but where its concern most affects is the deficit.
Here, it points to a figure close to 4% when the Spanish Government aims to reduce it to 3%, the figure that Brussels considers key to avoid supervision or special measures. In the absence of specifying the formula for the reestablishment of fiscal measures in Ecofin, 3% is a safe haven, something that the Government considers it will achieve but that the IEE rejects. The calculations are made assuming that most of the anti-inflation measures still in force will be withdrawn, a decision that the Executive must make in the coming days and over which it maintains absolute discretion, except in the case of some subsidies. to transport, which are maintained, and the reduction in VAT on food, extended until the summer.
Furthermore, the Institute of Economic Studies criticizes the tax burden borne by companies, which, it considers, impacts investment capacity. Specifically, companies contribute 32.2% to the collection, which is eight points above the European Union average, which stands at 25%, which represents a competitive disadvantage. In this sense, they point out that in the last decade, Spain has lagged behind in the development of business investment. Currently, investment in capital goods has not yet reached pre-pandemic levels. It is still 5% lower and is expected to recover to the level next year.
“Business investment is the weak point of the Spanish economy,” they say, adding that the process has been aggravated by factors such as worsening expectations, the evolution of business income and the context of uncertainty in the Spanish economy. Here they add traditional complaints, such as the excessive size of the public sector and high taxation.
