The Center d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) will announce this midday the third wave of the 2022 barometer, whose field work began on September 27, the same day that JuntsxCatalunya asked the President of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès, to submit to a question of confidence in the Parlament during the general policy debate, until October 21, two weeks after the departure of the post-convergent government and with it already fully operational.
In this way, the CEO survey, which will include estimated votes and seats in Parliament and in the Congress of Deputies, will become the first survey that will assess the electoral effects of the split between ERC and Junts and the formation of the new Executive Catalan with the incorporation of profiles that transcend the republican acronyms, such as the ex-socialist Joaquim Nadal, the ex-convergent Carles Campuzano and the ex-podemite Gemma Ubasart, and that allow Aragonès to speak of the "Govern of 80%".
It will be necessary to see if this survey slows down or consolidates the advantage that the PSC took in previous studies of the demoscopic organism of the Geneneralitat and if it continues rewarding its pactist attitude, now with the will to negotiate the budgets with Esquerra. In July, the CEO placed the Socialists in a clear first position with an estimated vote range of between 25 and 29% with a projection of seats in the Parliament of between 36 and 42 compared to the 33 they currently hold .
In that survey, Esquerra remained more or less stable with an estimated vote of between 19 and 23% and a projection of seats between 31 and 37. Now he has 33.
On the other hand, Junts suffered from the status of minor partner in the coalition despite having only one seat less than ERC and its vote estimate fell to a range that ranged from 14 to 17% with a projection of seats that ranged between 22 and the 27. The survey, carried out with a sample of 2,000 individuals, will give indications of whether the exit of the Government allows the post-convergents to stop the bleeding or if it becomes a hemorrhage. In any case, Junts has always fared better in elections than in polls.
Another barometer key will be what is the citizen support for the independence of Catalonia at a time of enormous division between sovereignist parties and entities and after one of the most divisive dyads for the movement that is remembered with a clear confrontation between the Catalan National Assembly (ANC) and Esquerra that led Aragonès and his ministers not to attend the demonstration on l'Onze de Setembre. Without these precedents, in July, support for independence fell three points to 41% and was at its lowest since 2015, only equaled in June 2017, shortly before the 1-O referendum, after which it shot up to 49%, its historical maximum. Likewise, the rejection of independence in July was at its historical maximum (52%).
The survey will also include the usual assessment of political leaders and specific questions on associationism and participation, on international politics and even on the legacy of former presidents Jordi Pujol and Pasqual Maragall, among others.
