One of the most notorious consequences of political normalization in the Basque Country is that the focus of Basque politics has shifted to Madrid, a situation in which, paradoxically, the nationalist parties have been able to strengthen themselves. The PNV and EH Bildu celebrated yesterday the Aberri Eguna, day of the Basque Homeland, looking at the electoral cycle that begins in May and surrounded by polls that draw a growing weight of these two forces in the face of the electoral appointments that will take place in the next 15 months. The two formations gain weight by competing in their role as defenders of Basque interests in the Congress, while the PSE struggles to maintain its position and, according to surveys, the Basque PP and, to a greater extent, Podemos would maintain the downward trend that have been registered in the last Basque elections.
Obviously, the strength of PNV and EH Bildu responds to multiple factors. The commitment to possibilist positions of both formations, far from any unilateral sovereign path, is perhaps the most relevant, together with far-reaching social and generational changes. In any case, this partial transfer of the playing field of Basque politics to Madrid and the consequent adaptation of both forces emerge as a capital issue that allows them to consolidate themselves thanks to their own successes and, to a large extent, the mistakes of others. One more factor that contributes to reinforce the idea that a sort of Basque bipartisanship is being consolidated, a perception that benefits both formations and that the PSE seeks to combat.
While socialists, popular and Podemos wear out under the political noise of Madrid, the PNV and EH Bildu play a role there in which they have little to lose and much to gain. In parallel, a contrast between Basque politics, comparatively temperate, and the hubbub of Congress that also benefits them, gains weight. One piece of information is worth showing: 72% of Basque citizens say they trust the Basque Parliament, compared to 27% who trust Congress, according to the latest Basque Sociometer. The figures are similar if the Basque and central governments are compared.
This new dynamic in Basque politics has been possible thanks to a correlation in Congress that has given PNV and EH Bildu a singular role. With Aitor Esteban as a man in Madrid, the jeltzales have basically done the same thing they have been doing since the establishment of democratic institutions, deepening their role as defenders of Basque interests in Madrid. The big difference is that, if at other times Basque politics in Congress occupied a second plane in contrast to what was happening in the Basque Country, now it has gained increasing weight. One only has to see the dimension that it has acquired in the ETB newscasts, the ones with the highest audience in the Basque Country.
Bildu, on the other hand, has opted to amend the historical strategy of the nationalist left in Madrid. In Sabin Etxea, headquarters of the PNV, they are ironically congratulated for having copied their strategy, although it is true that the coalition has sought its own profile. They compete with the PNV in appearing as defenders of the so-called Basque agenda, although emphasizing a social profile and, often, looking for advances that benefit, using their terminology, the popular layers beyond the Basque Country. It is not an accessory matter. Bildu also works to improve its image in Spain as a whole, which would allow it to increase its political capital and its value as a partner.
EH Bildu's politics in Madrid has become the most expressive example of his turn towards possibility. A fundamental playing field that allows him to transfer a pragmatic image that, in parallel, underpins the Basque Country with an active agenda that in recent months has led him to present comprehensive proposals on industrial policy, energy strategy or the welfare state. The goal is to be credible as an alternative.
The dimension that Basque politics has acquired in Madrid, however, also has some dangers for the two great nationalist groups. The discreet profile of Basque politics can favor an abstention that in the last Basque elections, marked by the covid, was alarming. In addition, the strength of these two formations, with almost 70% of the representation in the Basque Parliament, does not guarantee protection against general elections. One only has to look at the December 2015 elections and their repetition six months later. Then, the rise of Podemos led EH Bildu to go from the seven deputies it achieved with the Amaiur brand to only two. Even the PNV was outvoted by the purple formation. It remains to be seen how the polarization in the year-end elections or the pull of Yolanda Díaz will affect them, although it is true that both formations will be satisfied if the coalition government is reissued.
Meanwhile, the nationalist formations have celebrated the Aberri Eguna with their eyes set on the 28-M elections. Basque politics or, if you prefer, Basque-Navarra politics will then have four major focuses of interest: the regional councils; the city councils of the capitals; the distribution of mayoralties in medium-sized Basque towns and, finally, the composition of the Parliament of Navarra and the new foral executive and, especially, the Pamplona City Council, the booty that Bildu is most eager to recover.
It will be the first stop in a 15-month electoral cycle that will later have a great milestone in the general elections and from which, finally, a new Basque Parliament and a new Lehendakari will emerge. Just over a year in which what the two formations do on the Madrid playing field of Basque politics will be essential.
