Morocco is going through its best moment in terms of international image and regional influence since its independence in 1956, says the Arabist and professor Bernabé López, who has just published “Sahara, democracy and Morocco. Is a reconciliation possible? (edited by Icaria-IEMed). "Spain is the pagan of Morocco's moment of strength," although he warns that Rabat has intensified domestic authoritarianism, a symptom of insecurity. And he is critical of the maximalism of the Polisario Front, locked in a self-determination referendum, an all or nothing that could lead to another forty years in the Algerian desert.
Is Morocco experiencing the most powerful and internationally prestigious moment since its independence in 1956? The football image in Qatar, the establishment of relations with Israel, the backing of Washington and Brussels, the turn of Spain regarding Western Sahara...
I don't know if prestige is an excessive word because it's still a country... but yes, with greater strength and greater pretensions thanks to a diplomatic offensive to which, naturally, its visibility in Qatar has contributed but which is given by the support it has been receiving, first of all, that of the Trump administration -which Biden has not clearly questioned-, and also that of that series of countries that have established consulates in Western Sahara, within an "offensive" policy of the Minister of Foreign Affairs Nasser Bourita, who feels strong. Hence the answer: yes, it is a moment of strength that Morocco has been able to exploit.
Is Spain the pagan of this moment "winner" of Morocco?
Undoubtedly! It seems as if Spain had given in to Moroccan blackmail – and there is something like that – but perhaps we are inside the tunnel without seeing the exit. We are looking at the short-term effects – which are there – but the reality is more complex. There are other scenarios in the diplomatic game: Jordan enters the fray to try to mediate between Algeria and Morocco in order to reopen the gas pipeline and another series of factors that escape us, although yes, for the moment Spain is being the pagan in this conflict and we will see see how you can get out...
Do you have the feeling that Rabat has successfully blackmailed Madrid?
We do not know, at the moment, the counterparts that may exist. In the Ministry of Foreign Affairs they seem very convinced that they have been obtained and that there will be tangible facts soon. A lot is at stake with the establishment of a customs office in Ceuta, which never existed, unlike Melilla, which has had one since the mid-19th century, which would be a sign of achievement (it would reinforce the thesis of Ceuta's Spanishness). Algeria and Spain? At the moment there is no possibility of change. Relations are still completely broken, without an Algerian ambassador in Spain and with economic and commercial sanctions against our companies.
Do you think that Algeria's "punishment" of Spain is short-term or long-term?
The Algerian position can suffer modifications, flexibilizations, in a changing panorama like that of current international politics. I see this rupture more conjunctural than structural, among other things because Algerian politics has always been highly dependent on hydrocarbon price flows and on the other hand it is built on clay foundations internally, which can be silence because there is plenty of money to silence it. However, the need for changes that have not occurred is there, hidden and can reappear at any time. Let's remember the Hirak protests -the movement that managed to remove President Bouteflika from power in 2019-. And, as in Morocco, the internal front worries and counts, although sometimes it is covered with smokescreens and silenced with subsidies...
Is this fortress in Morocco going to promote an internal opening and a more “friendly” regional power?
I am pessimistic. In the good image of Morocco in the media there is too much hypersatisfaction built on a pride that reinforces authoritarianism. World public opinion about the country has changed and the World Cup has been exploited internally, but it acts as a smoke screen for a more severe policy at home and more fearful of any criticism or dissent. We are seeing it in things like the recent imprisonment of a former Human Rights Minister, sentenced to three years in prison for having made, among other things, a very strong statement openly criticizing the monarch's absences. Not only that, prestigious intellectuals and critical journalists have been punished with accusations about private acts when in fact they are political prisoners.
It does not detect "generosity" despite the improvement of the international image...
Instead of a generous policy, typical of when you feel strong, the situation has gotten worse. Perhaps they do not feel so strong internally due to the economic crisis, the increase in the cost of living, and even the absence of the monarch, which makes a dent in a difficult moment after the sediments left by the pandemic. And instead of a generous policy that is closer to civil society, there is this bread and football as a smoke screen, which whitens the image abroad but silences the dissidents inside.
The low visibility of King Mohamed VI is surprising, unlike what Hasan II would have done. To what do you attribute this low profile?
It can be due to multiple reasons. It is evident that the absences of the monarch, for many years now, are frequent and a good part of the year is spent outside of Morocco, probably away from direct interests and abandoning the management of the country to others despite the fact that the king has the last word. Let's say that the triangle on which the country's management rests is made up of the foreign successes of Foreign Minister Bourita and the control policy exercised in the Interior and security affairs by Yassin Mansuri and Abdel Latif Hammuchi. For reasons that escape me, such as health, the monarch is giving the country an image of disconnection even though he has been seen celebrating the victory against Spain in the streets of Rabat. They are different personalities: Hasan II was at the foot of the cannon at all times. Mohamed VI had the first ten years of his reign with verve and in which he was very present. In the last ten, he has been a rather absent ruler.
Are you more optimistic now, with a strong Morocco, regarding the dispute with the Polisario Front?
For there to be a reconciliation, two are needed. It is not necessary to look only at Morocco - as long as it does not receive pressure, there will be no changes. The situation is also the responsibility of the Polisario Front. Morocco does not seem to be going to reconcile because it is winning, apparently, and does not need any change. The EU folds, the United States gives its approval. There remains only one factor to change: the Polisario Front. However, it does not seem that in his next congress he will change the continuity of those who have governed him for decades and since the end of 2020 they broke the ceasefire to resume a deaf war that nobody sees. The Polisario should have seen a long time ago that it is entrenched in the demand for a referendum on self-determination, which is increasingly complicated and increasingly difficult to hold. That makes UN envoys end up throwing in the towel. You have to find another way out. This policy of intransigence has led him nowhere. Otherwise, Morocco will not move. I defend the third way: sit down to dialogue and impose conditions but not the maximalism of or referendum on self-determination or anything.
Are they comparable to the Palestinians in not realizing that time is against you and becoming more and more isolated?
The parallelism is pertinent. They have lacked a sense of reality, perhaps due to their lack of autonomy from Algeria and Algeria's fear of Morocco's successes - not only in football but also in terms of influence in Africa, which clashes with the times in which Algeria He championed the liberation movements. The context has caused Algeria to castle and this imposes a lack of political initiative on the Polisario. The responsibilities of this winning Morocco are enormous, but there are also responsibilities on the other side that have not known or been able to change the dynamics. And there is something vital: that future generations do not continue to suffer what these generations have. Between the continuity of the Polisario Front and the boast of the successes of Morocco we are going to another forty years of the Saharawi people in the tents of the desert. And so they will never see the sea.
As for Algeria and Morocco, do you see a rapprochement or more differences?
We must distinguish between the clique that governs Algeria and the population. I suspect that the Algerian people have a greater affection for Moroccans, despite the image of an autocratic regime with which Morocco has always been presented in Algeria. If today there is still romantic support from world public opinion towards the Saharawi people, it is because of Morocco's negative vision of the past. How was all that territory going to be given away to a dictator, Hassan II, in 1975? It was what justified that the left and more so in Spain were against the Pact of Madrid –seen as two dictatorships that agreed-. But it never occurred to anyone on that left to think about whether it was feasible to create an independent country with so few inhabitants -700,000 inhabitants- and such an extension -230,000 kilometers-, with the certainty of creating a failed state like Mauritania, which had already been operating for 15 years. , a country at the mercy of its northern or southern neighbor. Or the mercenaries. It is a subject so complex from its origin that it is simplified with the romanticism of the right of peoples to self-determination.
