Always with the exception that the unforeseeable is part of the DNA of the independence movement, the agreement is made. The only thing missing is the most important thing: sign it.
With the support of the militancy, Pedro Sánchez is approaching the investiture after months of exhausting negotiations that culminate in a climate of exceptionalism on the part of the right. José María Aznar marks the step of the PP with appeals for mobilization and with the judiciary on a war footing.
The socialists in charge of signing the pacts (Félix Bolaños, Santos Cerdán and María Jesús Montero) have acted as tightrope walkers spinning several Chinese plates at the same time. Some are still rolling as an indication of how complicated the legislature can be. After the slowdown that Junts gave on Thursday, the negotiation returned to normal yesterday. Both interlocutors are aware that the tug-of-war is no longer enough.
A Junts leader insisted yesterday that time is on their side, but the party leadership is increasingly aware that extending it may be difficult to justify. What has happened? Why this stumble at the end? Indeed, on Wednesday night there was a problem left to be resolved that for the PSOE was minor but that Junts considered essential, they saw it as a provocation that the socialists did not include it. It has to do with the people who will be able to benefit from the law, especially those prosecuted in the Voloh case of alleged diversion of funds for the Democratic Tsunami, among them Josep Lluís Alay, Puigdemont's collaborator. They were included, but Junts wanted to make it clearer. Thursday started badly, but both parties hoped to resolve it in a matter of hours.
The PSOE wanted to first tie the pact with Junts, more risky, more volatile, and then with the Republicans, to whom they have been lavishing gestures to avoid jealousy. But ERC took advantage of Junts' slowing down to overtake. With the media focus on Brussels, Oriol Junqueras took a photo with Minister Bolaños signing the 14 pages of the agreement. The Republicans had even prepared the poster on the lectern for the press conference, which read: amnesty, resolution of the conflict, Rodalies, with the “check” sign next to it as a point achieved.
In Brussels, to the anger at the PSOE's “play” is added irritation at the ERC's advance. An order is given to remove the scenery from the hotel where Carles Puigdemont was going to give an account of the agreement. However, it was not the former president who was the most outraged, but rather other party leaders. The secretary general, Jordi Turull, sent a letter to the executive on Friday morning in which he disqualified the ERC agreement with the PSOE, which includes the transfer of Rodalies and the forgiveness of 15,000 million of debt. Turull came to say: it's not a big deal if you read the fine print.
The political agreement between ERC and PSOE also includes a story about the Catalan conflict. It refers to the Statute ruling and the “referendum annulled by the TC” in 2017 and proposes a debate “on the national recognition of Catalonia”, always with “respect for the principle of legality and the democratic principle”. Well, negotiation sources assure that the text that Junts has negotiated with the socialists and that has not yet been revealed is expressed in similar terms. As if that were not enough, the PSOE creates a new dialogue table with ERC with "a verification mechanism", which will be "a person of recognized prestige." On September 5, Puigdemont demanded a “mediation and verification mechanism.”
But there is still more. The Junts negotiators have spent weeks discussing the amnesty law with the socialists and at the last minute ERC asked to include those prosecuted for the Democratic Tsunami and they made the headlines. It gave the impression that the authorship of the law belonged to the Republicans. The indignation in Junts is not surprising if one takes into account that it has spent years criticizing ERC for allowing itself to be fooled by the PSOE.
The negotiation is proving agonizing for the PSOE, forced to maintain silence amid criticism from the right so as not to hinder very delicate conversations. The socialists are eager to explain themselves. They are convinced that nothing that is signed supports the thesis of the breakup of Spain or the destruction of the rule of law. The preamble of the amnesty law refers at all times to the constitutional order. The rest, for example the “verifier”, has no legal meaning, they are dialogue tables between parties.
That does not prevent the wear and tear on the PSOE from being voracious. Although there are dissenting voices, the party resists together. At Moncloa they trust that all of this will vanish the day after the investiture, when Sánchez changes registration with the appointment of the new government. However, the legislature will be marked by the relationship with the Basque and Catalan independence movement, always flammable material.
If there is an agreement, the amnesty law will be the target of the judges, who are already moving. Causes related to the independence movement that had been investigated for years have been reactivated these days. Appeals to the Constitutional Court will proliferate, such as those from the Supreme Court, which will thus paralyze the application in the case of Puigdemont and other leaders and will cause more judges to follow in their wake.
Conservative members of the Judiciary have warned that the amnesty law represents “the beginning of the end of democracy.” They emphasize that the “principle of equality” between Spaniards enshrined in the Constitution is violated. In the Judiciary they believe that the Government wants to amend their plan. Despite the possible delays, the PSOE are convinced that in the end the judges will not be able to avoid compliance and it will be effective in months.
The Constitutional Court will have the last word on the law. Its majority is progressive but two members could abstain from this matter. The president, Cándido Conde-Pumpido, has done so in other cases related to the process because on his day he gave a conference critical of the independence movement. And Juan Carlos Campo, Sánchez's former Minister of Justice, maintained in his day that the amnesty was not constitutional. If both were to leave, the balance tips in favor of the progressives by only one vote.
The judicial criticisms emerge in a context of political tension. Aznar has called for general mobilization, setting the tone for the PP. Today Alberto Núñez Feijóo attends a demonstration in Valencia. The popular ones govern in almost all the autonomies, so their barons will work hard with the message of the comparative grievance with Catalonia, especially in finances. The more ERC shows its achievements, the more the PP proclaims that Sánchez is stealing from the rest of Spaniards to give to the Catalans to remain in power.
The PSOE pact with Esquerra will cost each Galician 400 euros, says the president of the Xunta Alfonso Rueda, ignoring that no community is paying the debt (yes the interest) and that all will benefit from the reduction. It is very possible that Rueda will advance the Galician elections as soon as there is a green light for the amnesty. And Feijóo will have to focus on achieving a good result at home.
Once the PSOE agreements with ERC and Junts have been signed, the battle between them is underway towards the Catalan elections. The obsession of both with throwing the other into the gutter and the speculation about who will be the candidates for the Generalitat will mark Catalan politics and will have effects on the Congress of Deputies.
Oriol Junqueras and Pere Aragonès have shared public prominence in these negotiations, although the one who has been on top of the details has been the first. The ERC bases have responded and have endorsed the agreement by 89%. There are no cracks below. We will have to see if they emerge from above. The signed pact emphasizes infrastructure and financing because ERC is aware that the management still does not bring them electoral returns.
Nor will Puigdemont have problems endorsing his agreement with the PSOE. His authority remains intact. Another question is what effects this pragmatic turn will have. Although it may seem that he favors pacts with the PSC, for example in Barcelona, it is not clear that Puigdemont wants such a rapprochement before the Catalan elections, precisely because of the rivalry with ERC.
Beyond economic issues or transfers, which will have their own monitoring commissions, this investiture will result in a proliferation of negotiating tables on the “political conflict.” Two more will be added to the one already existing between the central and Generalitat governments: between the PSOE and ERC, and between the PSOE and Junts. None of them talk about a self-determination referendum explicitly. Both will have their respective “verifiers”. In six years we have gone from total lack of communication, from not even picking up the phone, to multiple dialogue.
