Europe dreams of climate neutrality. Its scientists already imagine an EU-27 with a balance of net zero emissions by the middle of the century. The European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, the EU's consultative body, has recommended that the EU reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90-95% by 2040, compared to 1990. Is it possible?
This consultative body has prepared a report in which it marks the path that the European institutions must follow until the year 2040 to adjust to the Paris Agreement against climate change. The document places the trajectories with the gas cuts that prevent global warming above 1.5 °C. To do this, they have made an evaluation of the latest available scenarios to achieve climate neutrality in the EU by 2050.
It will be achieved?
"To meet the targets for net zero emissions in 2050, the EU must reduce these emissions by 90 to 95% in 2040 compared to 1990," and "that assumes a cumulative total emissions budget between 2030 and 2050 of between 11 and 14 Gt of accumulated CO2 equivalent”, says Laura Díaz Anadón, vice-president of the Scientific Advisory Council on Climate Change and professor of climate change policies at the University of Cambridge. That the European Union had to set objectives as defined in the 2021 Climate Change Law, highlights the professor.
“The EU has agreed to reduce its emissions by more than half in 40 years (between 2030 and 1990); and if we want to reach net zero, we must reduce the other half in 20 years. This illustrates the speed of the necessary changes”, stresses Laura Díaz Anadón.
The scientists point to a path led by a very significant short-term deployment of wind and solar energy, an intense process of electrification in the use of energy (now dominated by fossil fuels) and a boost to alternatives to fossil fuels, with a relevant role for green hydrogen.
And the electricity sector reaches emissions close to zero by 2040.
“We have to decarbonise the electricity sector, and electricity generation has to be predominantly renewable, especially wind, solar and hydraulic. And that means that the combination of these three sources must contribute between 70% and 90% to the mix in 2040”, says Díaz Anadón.
On trajectories consistent with the goal of climate neutrality by 2050 there would be almost no fossil fuels in the electricity sector by 2040, including gas.
Specifically, the decarbonisation of the EU electricity sector entails phasing out coal-fired electricity generation by 2030 and gas-fired electricity generation by 2040 (unless plants had carbon capture and storage systems in place). CO2).
To reach the goal, a decrease in energy consumption of between 20% and 40% is required by 2040, although the cuts are greatest for the transport sector (30-60%), followed by industry (15- 45%) and residential and tertiary sectors (15-35%). "However, the proportion of electricity in energy demand would be double what it is today," explains the Cambridge professor.
This whole strategy guarantees the energy independence of the EU by reducing imports of fossil fuels and, in some cases, practically eliminating them by 2050. Imports of primary fossil energy would decrease between 65% and 93% by 2040 with respect to levels of 2019. Fossil gas imports would be largely phased out by 2040. And fossil oil imports drop 60-80% from 2019 data.
There are many benefits of moving away from fossil fuels. It not only increases energy security while also helping to protect health and well-being with better air quality air.
The report reserves a relevant role for systems for capturing and eliminating CO2 from the atmosphere, through sinks (land, forests) or technological options used for the same purpose. In this second modality, the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) appears.
In some scenarios, the demand for bioenergy (biomass to produce electricity or to produce some types of fuel) increases by more than 50% by 2040, while other scenarios see a more modest increase, or even zero, highlights Laura Díaz Anadón.
In the scenarios considered, the production of hydrogen (in this case green) increases and in 2030 it will reach 5 or 10 Mt of hydrogen.
"The uses of hydrogen refer above all to those of an industrial nature" although hydrogen and its derivatives could also be directed to other uses. “We are going to increase the vectors of energy that are not fossil fuels, in addition to electricity. And not only in industry, but in some modes of transport, including cargo transport, maritime transport and aviation”, says the Cambridge professor.
The report includes forecasts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions other than CO2 by between 20 and 60%. Some trails show up to 50% reduction in livestock emissions, and in all cases considerable reductions in nitrogen fertilizer use (30 to 60%) are assumed. All trajectories envision large reductions in methane emissions from both waste (45-60%, linked to reduction in landfilling) and energy use (70-90%, due to reduced use of fossil fuels). .
